As news broke that the Raiders were sending a third-round pick (the one they acquired in exchange for Davante Adams just a few months ago) for quarterback Geno Smith, I braced for how the move would be received across the far corners of the internet.
Would this be yet another “Raiders doing Raiders things” move? Would there be more laughter at Las Vegas in response to more foolishness?
I held my breath.
And then…
Praise?
Almost unanimous praise?
As a Raiders fan, it was a foreign feeling to see all of the smartest football people I follow on social media declaring Las Vegas “winners” in a trade of such significance. An underrated asset coming to the silver and black at the position of highest importance during a winter in which the options were bleak?
It was in that moment that I realized that the Raiders had achieved something far more significant than momentary greatness: they had achieved competence.
More than any other word, this one sums up the last few months for the Raiders: competence. Pete Carroll is a competent — not unknown — head coach. Chip Kelly and Patrick Graham are legitimate, desirable coordinators. And now, at quarterback, the Raiders added a guy who is a bona fide NFL starter, not a question mark or a lottery ticket.
This isn’t to say any of those names belong in the top five of their profession, but they’re miles away from the bottom five, and that’s kind of the point here. The Raiders didn’t clinch a divisional title and didn’t pass the Kansas City Chiefs, but what they did was critical: they’ve established themselves as competitive.
All this on a Friday afternoon in the beginning of March.
It was the real-life version of the “I can’t believe this is my life” meme for Raiders fans.
And Geno Smith was the clincher.
When you look at his past few years a couple levels beyond the box score, you can see pretty clearly what Tom Brady and General Manager John Spytek saw: a highly accurate, highly poised quarterback who was fairly successful despite a pretty terrible offensive line in front of him.
As ESPN’s Benjamin Solak said,
“It is not remotely debatable if Geno Smith is a good quarterback or not.”
While some will look at his numbers — particularly last season — and nitpick, context is needed. As one of Solak’s colleagues, Mina Kimes, pointed out, Smith faced more “quick pressure” (pressure in under 2.5 seconds) on 18.1% of his dropbacks, the highest rate in the league.
And he was still good!
But it gets better because he did all this despite even more things working against him, like having two straight offensive coordinators who didn’t last 12 months at their job. Or having more “true dropbacks” (snaps without play-action or a screen) than any quarterback in the league. Or playing most of his games outdoors in the Pacific Northwest instead of indoors like he will in Las Vegas.
On those “true dropbacks”, Smith was the best in the NFL in “on-target rate” and fourth in completion percentage despite seeing pressure on 35.5% of snaps. And when he did get a chance to play indoors? There have been 30 touchdowns and just five interceptions (compared to 43 touchdowns and 31 interceptions outdoors).
To reiterate: None of this is supposed to make you believe that the Raiders found the guy who’s going to lead them to the Super Bowl or be a long-term answer (although quarterbacks are playing longer than ever before) — but they got a guy who will step on the field and make them believe they have a chance for the first time in a while.
And for a team who has suffered through Gardner Minshew, Aidan O’Connell, Desmond Ridder, Jimmy Garoppolo and Brian Hoyer over the past two seasons, it’s the most important win this organization has had in a while.
