There is one word that can describe the Los Angeles Rams offense throughout the 2024 season — inconsistent. While there have been moments where they have looked like a top-5 offense, there have been just as many moments where they have looked bottom-5. On Sunday against the Patriots, they couldn’t finish drives in the first quarter, only to score 28 points over the next 30 minutes. The Rams offense then disappeared once again in the fourth quarter.
The Rams offense this season has been a series of peaks and valleys. While the peaks have been impressive, the valleys leave those watching wondering what’s broken. Through the first five games of the season, the Rams offense ranked 18th in EPA per play and fourth in success rate. Essentially, the offense was moving the ball on a per-play basis very well, but not finishing drives. Since the bye week, they rank just 16th in EPA per play and 11th in success rate. With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy, the offense has been slightly better as a unit but worse on a per-play basis.
Most concerning has been the run game. Prior to the bye week, the Rams had one of the best running games in the NFL. They ranked fourth in EPA per play and led the NFL in rushing success rate. Despite getting healthier on the offensive line, the Rams have had a bottom-5 rushing offense, ranking 28th in EPA per play and 25th in rushing success rate.
It’s an offense that continually shoots itself in the foot, but the problems run much deeper than that. The offense too often looks the same among its playmakers, and the explosive plays simply haven’t been there like they have in the past. The passing game and run game have almost been two separate entities rather than being married together. That’s what made the new-look offense so successful last season.
Everything right now looks almost disjointed. Of course, the injuries to the offensive line and lack of continuity in offensive personnel are partially to do with that. At the same time, it doesn’t make sense that the offense is getting healthier but still getting worse in some areas.
Offense almost seems hard, which is unlike a typical Sean McVay-coached team. The biggest example of this is how they have started games this year. In seven games this season, the Rams have failed to score a point in the first quarter. Even last year, when they dealt with injuries, the Rams scored on their first possession in 11 out of 15 games with Matthew Stafford at quarterback.
The big question here is why?
Everything seems harder right now because it is. The Rams offense has the eighth-most plays per drive in the NFL with an explosive play rate of just 8.1 percent. Their 8.1 percent explosive play rate ranks just inside the bottom-10 at 23rd in the NFL. For comparison, last year, the Rams ranked 10th at 10.5 percent.
That lack of explosiveness is especially noticeable in the running game. Kyren Williams is very much a ‘gets you a single and the occasional double.’ However, rarely is he hitting that home run. Williams ranks 28th in runs of 10 or more yards this season and 48th in explosive run rate at 1.6 percent. For context, an explosive run is one that goes for 15 or more yards. Even last year during Williams’ breakout season, he ranked 31st in explosive run rate at 3.9 percent.
This isn’t a knock on Williams but simply saying that is just the type of running back that he is. That’s who he has been since coming out of Notre Dame. Dane Brugler of The Athletic noted before the 2022 NFL Draft that Williams had below-average long speed and wouldn’t outrun defensive backs. Nate Tice of Bleacher Report at the time said, “He isn’t slow, but he isn’t a true home-run hitter who can take any run the distance.”
Again, Williams does a lot of things very well. At the same time, it doesn’t mean that the Rams offense wouldn’t benefit from having that type of running back. When you look at some of the better running back duos in the NFL, they typically consist of two different style runners.
The Detroit Lions have David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs. For the Lions, Montgomery is their consistent ‘singles hitter’ while Gibbs has the ability to house any handoff and take it the distance. Gibbs leads the NFL in explosive run rate at 10.5 percent, while Montgomery is at 3.6 percent.
A lesser example of this is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers duo of Rachaad White and Bucky Irving. White is the consistent hitter in that backfield with good contact balance and yards-after-contact ability, while Irving brings an element of explosiveness and game-breaking ability to add diversity to the backfield. Irving ranks tied for sixth in explosive run rate at 7.3 percent, while White ranks 34th at 3.8 percent.
That’s not to say that a running back has to be explosive to be successful. There’s nothing wrong with being a David Montgomery or Rachaad White. Both players win in their own ways and are pretty good at it. The same can be said about Kyren Williams.
The issue here is that the Rams don’t have that “thunder and lightning” dynamic in the backfield. That’s the case with not only the running game but the rest of the offense in a sense as well. While the Rams have Blake Corum, the Michigan running back was selected because he was similar to Williams. Said McVay after the Rams drafted Corum,
“One of the things that jumped off is there’s a lot of traits that reminded me of Kyren Williams. I think there’s a lot of similarities.”
It made sense that the Rams would want a running back similar to Williams. When Williams went down with an injury last year, the offense suffered because of it. Players like Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman were brought in but were unable to generate the same spark that Williams brought.
However, because of that, the Rams have two players that generally bring the same skill set. Only 12 of Corum’s 45 touchdowns at Michigan came from more than five yards away from the end zone. Lance Zierlein of NFL Media described Corum as a player with below-average acceleration, with average speed, and not someone who breaks off long, explosive runs consistently.
Similar to Williams, that’s not a bad thing. That doesn’t mean that Corum still can’t be an effective running back in the NFL. However, what it does mean is that the Rams running game simply lacks variety. Both players are going to look and feel the same to opposing defenses.
The same can be said about the Rams passing game in a sense. Everything sort of feels the same because the players are so similar. The Rams don’t have or use a burner-type player consistently. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are both similar-style wide receivers. While both have the ability to create the occasional big play, neither are what you would consider explosive players. Both have similar route trees and similar builds from an athletic standpoint. The same can be said about Jordan Whittington. When he filled in for Nacua earlier in the season, he was playing in that role in the offense.
Much like Kyren Williams, that isn’t a bad thing. Kupp and Nacua are extremely good at what they do in their roles within the offense. Having multiple players that can do similar things is how the Rams can be so effective out of 11 personnel. It becomes hard for a defense to key in on what’s coming based simply on the personnel on the field. However, it can also get predictable. Williams even said after the Patriots game that defenders were calling out their plays:
“It really didn’t matter, we were calling our spots (and) they were literally calling our plays out there, saying that we were running the same play. We were running the same play!”
With that said, this season, the offense feels limited at times. Only six of Kupp’s 47 receptions have gone for 20 or more yards, which would constitute an explosive play. That’s 12.7 percent of his receptions, while Nacua is down at 17.8 percent. Both Kupp and Nacua have played in fewer games but rank 44th and 59th in 20+ yard receptions. TuTu Atwell leads the Rams in this category with seven for 25.9 percent of his receptions.
Some of this is scheme-based. McVay has always done well at scheming explosive plays in yards after the catch. This season, Nacua ranks 26th in yards after the catch per reception with 5.93, and Kupp ranks 42nd with 4.64.
The Rams are missing the big plays in yards after the catch and missing the plays in the vertical passing game. Additionally, Stafford hasn’t been effective throwing deep. While the Rams quarterback has the fifth-most passing attempts this season of 20 or more yards, he is just 12-of-37 for a completion percentage of 32.4 percent. That ranks 23rd out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks. His EPA per dropback on these throws ranks 28th.
There is obviously context to this when it comes to the Rams offensive line, and some of it is scheme. With that said, the offense also lacks the type of prototypical wide receiver that consistently wins deep.
Through 10 games, everybody seems to be waiting for the Rams offense to finally hit its stride. However, up to this point, it remains frustratingly inconsistent and at times looks broken. That’s been the story of the season.
