Teams are letting the Rams run on them and it’s working

It’s difficult to find positives in the L.A. Rams 1-4 start to the season, with most of the negatives stemming from injuries to the offensive line and receivers, as well as a porous defense that lacks experience, talent, and significant investment. But rising from the ashes, in a way, is running back Kyren Williams and his NFL-leading seven touchdowns.

Williams is on pace for over 1,200 rushing yards, which wouldn’t be at all surprising given that he had 1,144 rushing yards in 2023 despite missing five games. Williams is not only a productive back, he’s also showing off a little more athleticism than anyone expected of him as a fifth round pick in the 2022 draft: Williams has hit 15+ MPH on 13 different occasions this season, which is tied with Josh Jacobs for the 10th-most such carries among running backs.

The third-year back is also sixth in the NFL with 289 rushing yards after contact.

However, despite this one positive on the 2024 Rams, their rushing attack and L.A.’s potential Pro Bowl running back who has been the focal point of the offense so far, it just doesn’t seem like opposing defenses respect Williams or Sean McVay’s rushing offense very much.

Stacked Boxes

Kyren Williams has seen a stacked box (8+ run defenders) on 12.6% of his rushing attempts, which is actually the 10th-lowest number in the NFL among running backs. By comparison, Broncos running back Javonte Williams has run against a stacked box on 37.7% of his 53 rushing attempts, the most in the NFL.

49ers running back Jordan Mason has faced a stacked box on 37.1% of his attempts and Mason has 536 rushing yards in five games despite this number.

Mason is gaining +1.6 rushing yards over expectation, per Next Gen Stats, 6th-best mark in the NFL. Derrick Henry’s gaining +2.5.

Kyren Williams is at -0.4 on 95 rushing attempts, which ranks him 43rd in the NFL. And again, these numbers come again 87% not-stacked boxes as defensive coordinators instead aim to cover L.A.’s depleted receivers room and force Matthew Stafford to beat them with his arm, something that hasn’t worked out for Stafford or the Rams at all through five games.

Teams are telling Williams, “Go for it, run, we will give you these yards for free” and yes, he’s taking those yards for the most part. He’s even scoring more than one touchdown per game.

And yet, the Rams rank 24th in points scored, 18th in points per drive, are 25th in rushing yards, 24th in yards per carry, and 19th in net yards per passing attempt.

The Rams were close to beating the almighty Lions in Detroit in Week 1, but now they’ve lost four of five games and couldn’t compete with Jordan Love having one of the worst games of his career in Week 5.

Per Next Gen Stats, the Rams team number of facing a stacked box on 11.4% of their rushing attempts is 31st in the NFL, just 0.1% more than the 32nd-ranked Packers. Teams have stacked the box three times as often against the 49ers, yet the 49ers still average 144 rushing yards per game WITHOUT CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY, the seventh-most in the NFL.

The Rams have faced a light box on 49.6% of rushing attempts, ninth-most in the NFL, but average just 97.4 rushing yards per game. Some of that is due to L.A.’s game situation, they’ve had to lean on Stafford more because the Rams aren’t beating anyone. Their one win of the season still necessitated a fourth quarter comeback.

But run-to-run, the Rams still rank 28th in rushing yards over expectation per carry and they are 31st in the NFL with only 7 runs of 10+ yards.

Where the Rams do rank first

The Rams have the highest success rate in the NFL on runs at 52.8%. And a +6.2 rushing EPA is the eighth-best mark in the NFL.

But it’s clear that even though Kyren Williams is one of the Rams most productive players, arguably their best while Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua are injured and Stafford is struggling to consistently pass the offense into the end zone without those players, opposing teams aren’t afraid of him or the Rams rushing attack. They’ll give up those yards knowing that as long as they focus on stopping the pass, it will still be hard for the Rams to score over 20 points (only did it once) or to stop them from scoring more than 20 points (the Rams are 31st in points allowed per drive).

For the Rams to turn it around, they will need to play better defense—we all know that. But they’re also going to need to either be a lot more deadly on the ground than just taking what’s given to them OR Stafford will have to start punishing teams through the air.

Will either of these things happen before it’s too late?