In a tale as old as the hockey season, both the Edmonton Oilers and the Ottawa Senators are struggling to find the right rhythm, playing a game of opposite frustrations. The Oilers, sitting atop the NHL with a 5×5 shots for percentage (SF%) of 56.99%, and the Senators, boasting the third-best at 55.76%, are shooting down opponents by substantial margins.
Yet, these shooting exploits haven’t translated into scoreboard superiority. For Edmonton, the real head-scratcher is their lack of finishing power, while Ottawa is just yearning for a timely save or two.
Breaking down these numbers, the Oilers have pummeled goalies with 522 shots over 19 games, expecting about 45 goals, but they’re sitting at just 33, with a woeful shooting percentage (SH%) of 6.32%. Meanwhile, the Senators have faced 338 shots in 17 contests, begrudgingly letting in 35 goals.
They sport the lowest expected goals against but lag at 26th in the league with a save percentage (Sv%) of .896. While Ottawa’s offense isn’t lighting up the stat sheet—they rank 27th with a 7.28 SH%—it’s understandable since they’re not exactly manufacturing high-danger chances.
Flip the page, and the story’s just as compelling. Edmonton’s defensive woes aren’t far off the expected mark, allowing 36 goals against an expected 37. Could this be the night when the Senators’ netminders stand tall, or perhaps, will the Oilers finally light up the net?
Diving deeper into the goaltending storylines, NHL goalies at 5×5 this season hold an average expected save percentage of .897%. Linus Ullmark finds himself slightly under that at .891, while his expected sits at .902 per Clear Sight Analytics.
Stuart Skinner, for Edmonton, is almost hitting his expected save percentage with an .896 Sv% compared to an .899 xSV%. But, it’s on the penalty kill where things go awry, dragging down those overall numbers.
At even strength, saves from Skinner might be the difference between a nail-biter and a sigh of relief for fans.
Front and center of Edmonton’s offensive woes is Zach Hyman. Last season, the forward boasted a 16.98% shooting percentage at 5×5, but this year it’s plummeted to 5.31%.
He’s got two goals but needs six to match last year’s rate. His shot counts, down from previous campaigns, feeds into this narrative of unfortunate shooting luck and reduced opportunity.
On the blue line, the Oilers’ rear guard is seeing a slight uptick in production, with Evan Bouchard and Brett Kulak stepping up, even while stalwarts like Mattias Ekholm and Darnell Nurse are seeing their lists of accomplishments trimmed. Bouchard, in particular, finds his shot rates climbing, but he leads the NHL in blocked shot attempts—a part of his game linking shot volume with frustration as he pushes to crack the defensive armor.
Last night’s game against Montreal highlighted Edmonton’s current struggles as they were outworked, relying on perimeter shots lacking the punch of high-danger chances. They’ll need a stronger push tonight.
For Edmonton against Ottawa, the likes of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid, and Hyman are fronting the offense, surrounded by a mix of seasoned talents and pressing upstarts like Vasily Podkolzin and Corey Perry. On defense, Ty Emberson continues to impress with his stout game, having made notable strides on the penalty kill.
Ottawa, making improvements defensively under new head coach Travis Green, has been fortified by veterans and youth alike. The Senators are determined to stifle opponents and capitalize on opportunities, with Linus Ullmark set in goal and hoping to inspire confidence from the back out.
For Ottawa, the recent return of David Perron, following his daughter’s health improvement, could spark a positive shift in the team’s dynamics, while Noah Gregor’s absence due to injury is felt keenly, perhaps giving Edmonton a slight edge.
As game time approaches, it’s anyone’s match, with Oilers fans hoping this is the night it all clicks, but given recent performances, the Senators might just edge this one out in overtime, 4-3. Whatever unfolds, fans can expect another battle of will, skill, and the search for solutions on the ice.
