Will the Vikings Be Able To Find A Trade Partner In This Year's Draft?

Options abound for the Minnesota Vikings in this year’s draft. Because the team did a great job of filling roster holes in free agency, the Vikings don’t have a clear top need at any one position. Safety dominates the mock draft results. Still, the need for a starter is a year away because the room has Harrison Smith, Josh Metellus, and Theo Jackson.

The team could feasibly go with an S like Malaki Starks or Nick Emmanwori, a CB like Trey Amos, Maxwell Hairston, Shavon Revel, or Azareye’h Thomas, or a DT like Kenneth Grant, Derrick Harmon, or Walter Nolen. They could even go with an iOL such as Grey Zabel, Tyler Booker, or any number of potential tackle converts. I’m partial to Grant, Harmon, Revel, Zabel, and Booker, but I don’t have a strong preference between that handful of players.

In the draft, lacking a strong preference when your pick comes up means that you should look to trade back. Analytically, trading back to anmass extra picks creates value because of the uncertainty of drafting players. This year, it’s especially important for the Vikings, who only have four draft picks, and have to drop all the way to pick 97 for their next pick after 24. If you have five players on the board that you like, and can trade down 10 spots, there’s a good chance you can still get one of those players while picking up another Day 2 pick to get another shot at a future starter.

The problem is that I am not the only person who sees the talent level in this draft as relatively flat. Compare Lance Zierlein’s prospect grades from 2024 to his 2025 grades. This year, he has a whopping 60 players rated between 6.30 and 6.50, while he only had 42 players in the same band for 2024. That means teams will want to pick the depth in the second and third rounds of the draft rather than trading up to the late first.

NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport has reported the same, corroborating a quote from Tampa Bay Buccaneers GM Jason Licht.

That doesn’t mean there’s no hope of a trade-up. Insiders still view the Vikings as a potential trade spot because of their lack of picks. However, it does mean that GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah will need to work the phones to find a suitable trade partner on draft day. A team must have a need and positional scarcity to consider a trade-up. Adofo-Mensah has been willing to wheel and deal in his time as GM, so let’s help him identify some teams that might be willing to move up to pick 24, and what compensation for that pick should look like.

QB-Needy Teams

The most obvious targets are the two teams at the top of the second round that need a QB: the Cleveland Browns and the New York Giants. Both teams are missing out on Cam Ward, and none of the other QBs are worth a top-three pick. Therefore, it appears that both teams will take the pair of best players in the draft, Travis Hunter and Abdul Carter, rather than reach for a QB.

That could lead to a fall for players like Shedeur Sanders and Jaxson Dart, especially if they make it past the New Orleans Saints at pick No. 9. The Pittsburgh Steelers might take a QB at 21, which could lead to an itchy trigger finger for either the Browns or Giants. They might start hitting the phones, and the Vikings are just a couple of picks after the Steelers. The Saints, at No. 40, could also decide to get into the mix.

What does a trade down with the Giants or Browns look like? They have a similar menu of picks because they are picking right next to each other. One option would be for the Browns, who have an extra third-round pick from the Amari Cooper trade, to send picks No. 33 and 67 to the Vikings for picks No. 24 and 139.

That trade comes out to about average value on the calculator I created on Jimmy Johnson‘s draft trade chart, and other ones that use historical trades to derive pick value created by Rich Hill and Anthony Reinhard.

The Giants could offer a similar package, with picks No. 34 and 65. Still, neither solves Minnesota’s problem of needing more picks because they need to make change with their fifth-rounder to make the value work. Another option is taking a late third and early fourth, and that would eliminate the need for change. The Giants could offer picks No. 34, 99, and 105 for pick No. 24, and the value would come out very even, with a slight win for the Vikings across the board.

The Browns could easily do something similar, offering a bit more value with picks No. 33, 94, and 104. If the teams like the same QB and get into a bidding war, that could benefit the Vikings.

The Patriots

As the draft approaches, one team with two clear needs dominates the conversation. The New England Patriots took Drake Maye in last year’s draft but failed to provide him with a supporting cast, and there are concerns they might ruin him if they’re unable to add help at OT and WR. They added old friend Stefon Diggs at WR, but have limited talent outside of him. The Pats completely lack talent at LT, where they’re currently slated to start another former Viking, Vederian Lowe.

Suppose the Patriots pass on OT at pick No. 4. In that case, they can’t count on a valid option being there at pick No. 38. Analysts have a large dropoff between players like Kelvin Banks, Josh Simmons, and Josh Conerly and a player like Aireontae Ersery, not seeing the later as a prospect who can start from Day 1. Even if they take a Will Campbell early, there’s a limited menu of impact receivers in the draft, and a large drop between the top four of Tetairoa McMillan, Matthew Golden, Emeka Egbuka, Luther Burden, and a player like Jayden Higgins.

The Patriots are an appealing option because they have specific needs and a tier drop near the end of the first round. They also have an extra third-round pick from the Atlanta Falcons due to the Matthew Judon trade, so they have the ammo to move up. They could offer picks No. 38 and 69 for Minnesota’s No. 24, which grades as a fair trade.

If the Vikings want more than just one extra pick from the trade, making exact change gets a little difficult. Still, a trade like picks No. 38, 77, 106, and 220 for Minnesota’s No. 24 and 139 also comes out as fair value.

The Patriots are a great trade option because they’re pretty much guaranteed to have a strong need, no matter how the board falls. You’d have to trade down a bit further than you would with Cleveland or New York, but that may not bother the Vikings, given the profile of this draft.

Contenders wanting pass rush help

Edge rusher is one of the deeper positions in the draft, but there still appears to be a cliff near the end of the first round. Style preferences must also be considered, as bendier rush players like Mike Green, James Pearce, and Donovan Ezeiruaku contrast with long, powerful rushers in Shemar Stewart and Mykel Williams.

There also happens to be a glut of teams needing the position at the end of the first round. The Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, Washington Commanders, and Buffalo Bills all pick from 27 to 30, and all count edge rusher among their top needs. If a team like Buffalo, or even the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 32, has one player they prefer and decide they need to go get their guy, they could choose the Vikings as a way to jump their competition.

The Bills own seven picks in Rounds 4 through 6. They could easily package multiple to come up. Trading picks No. 30, 109, and 169 leads to a fair trade for pick No. 24.

If the Vikings value a higher pick over volume, they could choose another interesting option. The Bills have two second-round picks, including one Minnesota initially sent to Houston in their trade up to No. 23 before the 2024 draft. The Bills could offer to upgrade the Vikings’ third-round pick to a late second, offering picks No. 30 and 62 for Minnesota’s No. 24 and 97, which comes out to a fair trade on the calculator.

In this scenario, the Vikings could even trade back again, taking the pick upgrade and then hopping back a few more spots with the Browns, Giants, or Patriots to pick up late-round picks to get closer to seven total picks.

conclusion

Trading back may be more difficult this year due to the talent distribution of the draft, but that doesn’t mean the task will be impossible for Minnesota. A handful of teams have valid reasons to trade up with the Vikings; all it takes is one to do a deal. They even have options for the type of trade they want, whether to get a pick near the second/third turn or acquire multiple picks later in the draft.