That will likely take care of things for Alabama football as far as making the College Football Playoff is concerned. That’s the message the CFP committee seemed to send Alabama football via the first CFP rankings released Tuesday.
The Crimson Tide was ranked No. 11, which under the new format would make Alabama the No. 11 seed and part of the 12-team playoff if the season ended today. Alabama would play the No. 6 seed Texas in Austin, Texas in the first round.
The Crimson Tide (6-2) wound up the highest-ranked team with two losses, even sitting above some one-loss teams such as No. 12 Boise State (7-1), No. 13 SMU (8-1), No. 17 Iowa State (7-1), No. 18 Pitt (7-1) and No. 21 Washington State (7-1).
So, if Alabama beats No. 15 LSU on Saturday (6:30 p.m. CT, ABC) in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, followed by wins over Mercer, Oklahoma and Auburn, the Crimson Tide seems on a clear path to making the playoff in its first year with 12 teams.
Lose any of those games, and that should eliminate the Crimson Tide with a third loss. It looks like it could be that simple: Win out and you‘re in. Lose and you’re out. Many suspected that considering Alabama has a win over No. 3 Georgia and no bad losses (Vanderbilt is ranked No. 24 in the AP poll), but the committee confirmed Tuesday night that the Crimson Tide should be in a win-and-in scenario through the final month of the season.
Is there a scenario where winning out might not be enough to make it? Possibly.
SMU is a team to watch.
Let’s say the Mustangs end up winning the ACC, beating out Miami for it. Then SMU would get the automatic bid that each of the top four conference champions earn. If the ACC championship game is the only loss for Miami, the Hurricanes would likely still be in the mix for one of the playoff spots. So in that scenario, there would be two ACC teams in the playoff.
In the initial rankings, there is only one: undefeated Miami at No. 4.
It‘s also important for Alabama that the Georgia win continues to be as good as it is now. The Bulldogs ranked No. 3 in the initial rankings. Say Georgia slips and loses a game or two, Alabama‘s resume won’t be as good as it is now. The victory over Georgia is the second-best win in the country right now, behind only No. 1 Oregon beating No. 2 Ohio State.
More than likely, Alabama winning out will secure a playoff spot. The committee seems to value the wins over Georgia and Missouri while not knocking Alabama too much for the losses to Tennessee and Vanderbilt. Plus, the Crimson Tide already sits inside the 12-team field in the initial rankings, and that’s a better spot to be instead of needing to fight your way in over the past couple weeks.
Much still has to play out through the last month of the season, though. Plenty could still shake up the rankings ahead of Alabama and behind it. The Crimson Tide sits in a prime spot to make the playoff if it wins out, but that’s also not a certainty.
Nothing ever really is with the College Football Playoff.
CFP rankings: Nov. 5
- Oregon (as Big Ten champion)
- Ohio State
- Georgia (as SEC champion)
- Miami (as ACC champion)
- Texas
- Penn State
- Tennessee
- Indiana
- BYU (as Big 12 champion)
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
- Boise State
- SMU
- Texas A&M
- LSU
- Ole Miss
- Iowa State
- Pitt
- Kansas State
- Colorado
- Washington State
- Louisville
- Clemson
- Missouri
- Army
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