It took a long time for most to reach that conclusion. After a stretch where the Vikings needed OT to beat the Chicago Bears and had to frantically come back to beat the Arizona Cardinals, you could feel “fraud” accusations seeping in as people were reminded of the 2022 team, highlighting the team’s 7-1 record in one-score games this season.
They’ve shut the door on that conversation with back-to-back blowout wins against the Atlanta Falcons and Bears.
Not like two years ago
Those paying close attention to the team always knew it was different. The Cardinals game was Minnesota’s only true comeback win this season, and only the New York Jets’ game had a perilous feel. The Jacksonville Jaguars also got the ball with an opportunity, but the Vikings dominated that game from a box score perspective. Only bad red-zone turnovers kept it close.
If you look at the rest of Minnesota’s games, the San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, and Bears all pulled within one score with so little time left that they had to attempt an onside kick. The Bears recovered and forced overtime. Still, carrying a double-digit lead late into the fourth quarter made those four games feel different from the high-wire act the Vikings performed every week in 2022.
AN Elite team
At 12-2, the Vikings have ascended into the NFL’s upper tier. They have a well-rounded team with an elite defense and a solid, if not spectacular, offense.
- They rank fourth in point differential, behind the Detroit Lions, Buffalo Bills, and Philadelphia Eagles.
- They rank fourth in Pro-Football-Reference’s “Simple Rating System,” behind the Lions, Bills, and Packers.
- Minnesota is fifth in Net EPA/play, calculated from rbsdm.com‘s EPA/play statistics, behind the Bills, Lions, Eagles, and Baltimore Ravens.
- They’re also third in Net Success Rate, behind the Ravens and Lions, using the site’s success rate stats.
- The Vikings are sixth in Total and Weighted DVOA behind the Ravens, Lions, Packers, Bills, and Eagles.
Betting odds also show that the market believes the Vikings are near the league’s top tier. Looking at a consensus of different sportsbooks, the Vikings are functionally tied with the Packers at around +1300, and no other team is averaging over +3000. The Bills, Eagles, Lions, Kansas City Chiefs, and Ravens are the teams above the Vikings and Packers. Most of them are division leaders, which gives them an advantage in playoff seeding and, therefore, an easier path to the Super Bowl.
A path to the top
Notably, the Vikings rank ahead of the 13-1, defending Super Bowl Champion Chiefs in every one of the statistical categories above. And while we don’t have the technology to clone Patrick Mahomes, the Vikings have the chance to take something nearly as powerful — the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
If the Vikings win their final three games against the Seattle Seahawks, Packers, and Lions, they will overtake the Lions for the division lead at 15-2. At worst, they’ll be tied in record with Philadelphia. Because they will, by necessity, be tied with the Eagles in terms of conference record and record against common opponents at that point, the tiebreaker will come down to strength of victory.
Strength of victory is simply the combined record of the opponents you’ve beaten, and the Vikings have a four-game lead on the Eagles in that category. It’s certainly possible for that to change based on games Minnesota can’t control, but at least they have a head start.
Even if they don’t get the No. 1 seed, two guaranteed home games as the No. 2 seed is a boon.
They weren’t supposed to be here
As mentioned above, the Vikings are sixth or seventh in Super Bowl odds. Before the season, this was inconceivable. Vegas had them as +10000 to win the Super Bowl and pegged their over/under for wins at only 6.5. Compare that to every other team I’ve discussed above:
- Kansas City Chiefs: +500, O/U of 11.5
- Baltimore Ravens: +1000, O/U of 10.5
- Philadelphia Eagles: +1200, O/U of 10.5
- Detroit Lions: +1200, O/U of 10.5
- Green Bay Packers: +1600, O/U of 10.0
- Buffalo Bills: +1600, O/U of 10.0
All those teams were projected for 10+ wins, while the Vikings were projected for 10-plus LOSSES. If you add the Super Bowl odds of each team together, you would get +7100, which still falls short of +10000.
The Vikings were supposed to be rebuilding after moving on from their long-term starting QB, Kirk Cousins, and losing their rookie first-round pick, J.J. McCarthy, to injury have shocked everyone in the NFL world.
No one is perfect
Even when teams make the playoffs, it doesn’t always feel like they are true Super Bowl contenders. We experienced that with the 2022 Vikings and the Giants team that beat them. We can see that in the gambling odds’ lack of faith in Pittsburgh Steelers, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Commanders, Houston Texans, Los Angeles Rams, Denver Broncos, and Los Angeles Chargers — all likely playoff teams.
Sometimes, a team feels unstoppable and gets a stranglehold on odds, particularly in a conference. That was true of the San Francisco 49ers last year, but the field is much more wide open this year. The Lions were heading in that direction. However, they feel vulnerable with injuries piling up and coming off a loss to the Bills.
The Eagles have maximized their elite offense and defense but just spent a week making headlines over locker-room drama.
The Vikings have already beaten the Packers, in Lambeau to boot, this year. Most NFL fans would rank Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love above Sam Darnold in terms of QB play. However, the truth is Darnold is sandwiched between them in EPA+CPOE composite, and leads both in success rate so far this year. Minnesota should look competitive against either team.
On the AFC side, you have the top teams powered by the three best QBs in the league. Fortunately, the Vikings will only have to face one of those teams if they make it that far.
From an underlying metrics perspective, the Chiefs don’t look as good as a 13-1 team, and now Patrick Mahomes has a high ankle sprain.
The Bills are an offensive juggernaut, but their defense has fallen off recently. Last week, they needed all 48 points and spectacular Josh Allen plays to beat the Lions. However, they came up short against the Rams the week before despite an arguably better Allen performance and 42 points.
Similarly, the Ravens and Lamar Jackson have been incredible this year, but their defense is middle-of-the-pack. After weird losses to the Raiders and Browns, they have an uphill battle to win their division. To take the AFC North, they’d need to win out and then have the Steelers lose an additional game.
None of this is to say that the Vikings have an easy path to the Super Bowl. Instead, it’s to say that making a run is realistic. All of the best teams have blemishes, and while Minnesota may not be favored against any of them on a neutral field, they’ll have a decent shot with home-field advantage if they can snag it:
Let’s hope they can continue their current seven-game winning streak through the rest of the regular season and parlay that into some playoff magic.
