Seattle has been an unlucky team when it comes to recovering fumbles.
The Seattle Seahawks are 8-5, leading the NFC West, and they’re also one of the unluckiest teams in the NFL.
NFL data analyst Tom Bliss has been charting the net win probability added through “luck” plays all season. This includes opposition dropped interceptions (as in, passes thrown by a quarterback that were dropped by the other team), opposition dropped passes, opposition field goals and extra points, and fumble recoveries by either team.
As of Week 14, the Seahawks rank 29th in favorable luck.
This is a flip from last season, when the Seahawks were near the top of the luck charts.
What’s been hurting the Seahawks the most? Turnover luck. Geno Smith has thrown 12 interceptions, but he’s had a few tipped passes go into the arms of defensive players. If you look at the Turnover Worthy Plays on PFF, Geno’s TWP% is just 2.1%, so passes deemed “interceptable” have basically all been picked. Can you count how many dropped would-be interceptions Smith has had this year? It can’t be a high number.
Dropped passes and missed field goals/extra points have favored the Seahawks, but nothing has been more damaging to Seattle than fumble luck. They’ve forced 12 fumbles and only recovered four while losing seven of their own fumbles. Several of the fumbles recovered on offense were wayward Connor Williams snaps or Geno Smith dropping the ball and immediately picking it up.
One of the biggest moments against the Seahawks was Josh Allen’s kicked-forward fumble in Week 8, turning what would’ve been a turnover and another Seattle possession inside Buffalo territory into an eventual Bills touchdown.
Green Bay has only lost four fumbles on the season, although one came against the Detroit Lions last week from Christian Watson. However, the opportunistic Packers defense has recovered 12 fumbles, the second-most in the NFL.
I’m of the belief that ball security is generally not luck. Fumble recoveries are overwhelmingly luck, and the Seahawks have not been able to be on the plus side of recovering their own fumbles or getting their opposition’s.
If that changes in Seattle’s favor over the past few weeks, perhaps that’ll be a key difference between a playoff berth and sitting home after Week 18.
