Nothing hits like that first win of the season. After a seven month bender of anxiety and excitement, getting a win in Week 1 is the cure for everything that ails us. When you're 1-0, the world is a brighter, nicer place. Colors are vibrant, music is beautiful. There are endless possibilities when you're 1-0. You could soon be 2-0! Or in the playoffs! Or Super Bowl champion! When you're 1-0 not only is all of that possible, it's also extremely likely. Coaches and players will say there's still stuff to clean up, but we know better – we know that 1-0 is quite literally the embodiment of perfection, and nothing can hurt us now.
Case in point: the Chicago Bears. The snuck out of Week 1 with a comeback win over the Titans thanks to some timely plays on defense and special teams. They didn't, notably, get a particularly encouraging game from the face of their franchise, The Prince That Was Promised. (I know it was his first game and things are fine, but we're building a narrative here.)
In fact, going into last Sunday's game against the Titans, there were more than a few reasons to be nervous about the Bears' season. But coming out of last Sunday's game against the Titans, all those reasons miraculously disappeared; that's the magic of 1-0. Even their biggest defensive concern – the line's productivity – was all for naught. And ESPN has the stats to prove it! We love ESPN, don't we folks?
One of ESPN's fun newish NFL stats is line Win Rate, which broadly looks at both group and individual performance. They publish win rates for pass rushing, pass blocking, run blocking, and run stopping on both sides of the ball, and maybe the math isn't totally there yet, but I'm not smart enough to know if that's true or not. Ignorance really is bliss!
And frankly, Bears fans should be in the business of taking ESPN's word for it, because ESPN's word is awfully good to their favorite team this week. According to the worldwide leader, the Bears actually had two of the most productive pass rushers in the NFL during Week 1. Neither of them were Montez Sweat either, meaning the Bears actually have a really deep defensive line and don't need to worry about it at all! I told you ESPN wasn't that bad. Here's what they found:
Edge pass rush win rate rankings
#2: Darrell Taylor: 15 plays, 7 wins, 47% Pass Rush Win Rate, 5% Double Team Rate
DT pass rush win rate
#1: DeMarcus Walker: 10 plays, 6 wins, 60% Pass Rush Win Rate, 62% (!) Double Team Rate
If I didn't know any better, I'd say that the Bears had the second-most effective edge rush and the most effective defensive tackle in the league last week. In fact, ESPN *does* know better, and they're still saying it – the Bears have no flaws, and even your biggest concerns about the team can be easily solved with random algorithms. Ryan Poles has done it again.
