Before Week 1 ever began, it was obvious to every NFL fan that the New Orleans Saints weren't up to snuff, especially compared to the reigning back-to-back champs. Most analysts would have looked beyond the Saints to other contenders in the NFC before the season, but fast forward to Week 3 and suddenly the Chiefs have a real contender on their hands for a Monday night game in the not-too-distant future (Week 5).
It wasn't because of a lack of talent, in fact, the duo of running back Alvin Kamara and Chris Olave has been pretty dominant for many fantasy football owners. But with one of the oldest defenses in the league and Derek Carr in a last hoorah at quarterback, it didn't seem like they would be any good.
That was before their 2-0 start that saw them score on 14 of their 15 possessions with Carr on the field. That was also before their 29-year old running back scored four touchdowns (three rushing, one receiving) against what was supposed to be one of the toughest defenses in the league in Dallas.
Suddenly the Chiefs' first Monday Night Football (MNF) game of their 2024 season isn't such a gimme after all.
Let's take a closer look at this looming matchup given what we know so far this season.
So far this year the Kansas City defense is not the same as their top-two defense last season. They have allowed the second-most yards through the air (513) through two weeks and the fourth-most passing touchdowns (four) as well.
Against the speedy receivers on their roster like Rashid Shaheed—who averages 51 yards per touchdown in his career—the Chiefs' defense is going to have to step up and make some key plays.
Obviously, Kamara will be defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's main focus, but Carr has some serious weapons emerging on the outside including Chris Olave who was a first-round pick (11th overall).
Currently the Saints rank second in red zone offense (88.9% success rate), second in third down percentage (57.1%) and first in yards per play (6.9). This does not bode well for a Chiefs' defense that looks like it is severely missing both L'Jarius Sneed and Willie Gay Jr., who is now on New Orleans' linebacker squad.
Derek Carr, who was famously the face of the Oakland and Las Vegas Raiders for almost a decade, does not play well against Kansas City. Even with weapons like Davante Adams, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Marshawn Lynch, Jared Cook, Josh Jacobs, and more—most of whom were in their prime—Carr only finished his Raiders tenure with a record of 3-14 versus Kansas City.
In those 17 games, Carr has thrown just over 4,100 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions with a quarterback rating of 83.0 which isn't terrible, but it's not great.
Something about the Chiefs makes Carr shake in the pocket, and with his age and his lessened mobility, there is a chance that Chris Jones, George Karlaftis, and the rest of Spags' defense will have a good day. That, sadly, might be the Chiefs' best chance at beating the Saints in a standalone game that will be judged all season long on Kansas City's path to a three-peat.
And although the Saints' offensive line doesn't play like the preseason lists thought they might, they can still have bad days just like everyone else.
There are a few former Chiefs on the Saints' roster that will be going up against Reid and their former teammates. Linebacker Willie Gay Jr., who left this offseason for New Orleans, and defensive back Tyrann "Honey Badger" Mathieu are both on the Saints' starting defense.
Both of these players can have some serious insight into the Kansas City offense, but Reid knows the weakness of both these players when they back up into the secondary. It wouldn't be crazy to think that Reid and offensive coordinator Matt Nagy are already scheming up plays to attack both the aging Mathieu and the Chiefs former second-round linebacker.
To add to the list, former Chiefs' third-round pick Khalen Saunders is also on the Saints' defense. This means three players are giving Saints head coach Dennis Allen insight into Reid and his schemes, but that can go both ways with the way Reid and Patrick Mahomes create plays on offense.
No matter what, the Chiefs are going to get the Saints' best effort because they have that huge target on their back. But that doesn't mean the Saints are going to look like the same team that has already put up 91 points in the first two weeks of the season. It's up to the Chiefs to make Carr and his offense look imperfect.
