Struggling Commanders Starter Named Unlikely Breakout Candidate

He’s spent most of this offseason being touted as a candidate for trade or somebody expected to be usurped by a late-round draft pick, but at least one person still believes Washington Commanders starting running back Brian Robinson Jr. can enjoy a breakout season in 2025.

The surprising prediction comes from Jacob Robinson of The Athletic. He chose the struggling starter as the Commanders’ surprise package, but with a caveat.

As Robinson put it, “if healthy, Washington’s lead runner could recapture his early-season form (he averaged 4.6 yards per carry through Week 9).”

It’s a bold statement about a RB1 who has struggled to convince he’s powerful or explosive enough to join the NFL’s elite at his position. The pressures of playing in a contract year will also likely weight heavily on Robinson, particularly when he’s facing competition from a more dynamic rookie.

Brian Robinson Jr. Needs Breakout Season

It’s now or never for Robinson to break out for the Commanders. The 26-year-old has been solid but far from spectacular during three seasons in Washington.

Those seasons have yielded a decent average of 4.1 yards per carry, but Robinson hasn’t been overwhelming in any one area. He’s not a formidable bruiser capable of trucking defenders on a regular basis, and nor is the third-round pick in the 2022 NFL draft a legitimate breakaway threat with game-changing speed.

At this point in his career, Robinson looks more like a complementary runner than a lead back. He’s got a fatal flaw that’s limiting the amount of big plays the Commanders can expect on the ground.

Yet, for all the concerns about his game, Robinson still inspires confidence in some, including head coach Dan Quinn. The latter believes Robinson appeared “really healthy” at minicamp, per The Washington Post’s Sam Fortier, who also noted Quinn applauded the player’s “speed and agility in one specific cut.”

That last line about Robinson’s cutting ability may be as significant as any update about the former Alabama star’s health. Making more exciting moves to create explosive runs is how Robinson can stay ahead of the competition.

Including a first-year pro who’s already caught the eye thanks to his own agile and quick cuts.

Commanders Have Healthy Competition Brewing in Backfield

When a seventh-round pick at his position is already being touted for a breakout campaign, Robinson knows he’s got a problem. He can’t ignore the positive first impression made by Jacory Croskey-Merritt this offseason.

To his credit, the veteran has responded the right way, after he “stood out in minicamp,” according to Robinson. Some of the best work at camp was highlighted by Scott Abraham of 7News DC.

The incumbent is already in a strong position because Robinson believes Croskey-Merritt is “the only back who could unseat” the starter.

That’s debatable, when proven Austin Ekeler has averaged 4.4 yards per rush throughout his career and remains an outstanding receiver out of the backfield. The latter trait is also shared by solid pro Jeremy McNichols.

Ekeler and McNichols aren’t the only competition for Robinson, though, not when another underrated speedster has been garnering attention this offseason. There’s also the presence of Chris Rodriguez Jr., who offers more muscle between the tackles than any other back on the depth chart.

Add in the sudden-strike rushing skills of a pair of dual-threat playmakers, quarterback Jayden Daniels and wide receiver Deebo Samuel, and the Commanders aren’t tethered to Robinson delivering a breakout year.