The Seattle Seahawks are not the first team in the NFL to capture lightning in a bottle.
That's exactly what they did when they landed Russell Wilson to be their franchise quarterback for a decade on Day 2 of the 2012 NFL Draft. But it's what Seattle has done since and the bet they're placing once again that has general manager John Schneider firmly in the spotlight. Seattle, of course, cashed out of the Russel Wilson experience and transitioned to a reclamation project in Geno Smith, who was a multi-year backup in the offense. Smith promptly gave the Seahawks their two best seasons of completion percentage and passing yards in franchise history.
A decade after finding one unorthodox pathway to a starting quarterback, Smith's turn broke franchise records and gave Seattle another unorthodox answer. Now, after trading Smith to Las Vegas, Schneider and the Seahawks are betting on a third successful go at catching lightning in a bottle. Seattle's signing of Sam Darnold this spring is far from the first time a team has signed a starting quarterback in free agency but the economics of his deal are far behind the frontlines of NFL quarterback contracts.
Few teams have successfully found hits at quarterback with non-premium investments twice under the same leadership. Schneider's Seahawks are among those who have. If Seattle now hits a third time? We'll need Schneider to write a book.
Lightning Striking Three Times In Seattle?
Sam Darnold is a player that does come with some risk after breaking out under Kevin O'Connell in Minnesota this past season. Darnold was productive and led Minnesota to the doorstep of the NFC's No. 1 seed in the playoffs before the Vikings faltered against Detroit and then lost to the Rams in the Wild Card round. The fact that Darnold has no fully guaranteed money beyond 2025 in his $100 million contract underscores that Seattle knows this may not go right.
Darnold was terrific in 2024 but his production is a mighty outlier versus his career production. As he enters into his eighth season of play, Seattle is betting that they can successfully transplant Darnold from Minnesota into their offense despite a complete reworking of their offensive line, pass catching group and coaching staff.
You could argue that Darnold, with a $100 million contract, is a premium investment. But that $37.5 million guaranteed at signing ranks 23rd among NFL quarterback contracts. It is the very definition of a middle of the road investment. The rest is up to Darnold to earn with his play on the field in 2025.
Schneider believes in the changing blueprint
Schneider, for what's worth, this Geno Smith is the perfect case study for why Darnold was the right choice.
“I do see (Darnold as ascending), because — well, the experience we had with Geno would tell us that..These guys need reps, and he got a ton (in 2024). The undercurrent from the league going into last season was that he had kind of turned the corner. And then, the evidence was there.”
- Seahawks GM John Schneider to Mike Silver of The Athletic
But don't let Schneider blindly lead you to believe they only have one bet placed, even if neither best comes with a marquee cost. If not Darnold long-term, it's another Day 2 quarterback who could get the next shot at being "the man" via Jalen Milroe. Milroe is a player who is still a bit rough around the edges and would likely benefit from a 'Geno Smith' type of incubation period before getting his chance to play. Smith served two years as the backup to Wilson before getting his turn as the unquestioned starter.
It's a risky bet to place for Seattle but thanks to Smith's age, he turns 35 in October, the Seahawks clearly felt this was the time to transition to some youth amid the backdrop of trying to agree to a future at the position.
The NFL is all about winning in the margins. How many hidden edges can you find as a team that can compound and add up to put your group over the top? Seattle has been arguably the NFL's most consistent at finding margins at the most important position. Their solutions to quarterback play have cost less than most, while the play has kept them competitive.
It's been an impressive run with Wilson and Smith. But if the latest pivot comes up triple-sevens — but it from Darnold or Milroe, it's going to be perhaps John Schneider's best work yet. It's one thing to strike gold accidentally, as they did with Wilson. It's another thing to have a backup in-house for two years and knowing what you've got. This turn from Schneider is a venture into the great unknown while staying true to his roots of trying to win the investment game in the process.
