Seahawks and Nick Emmanwori contract dispute isn’t as big as it looks

Don't be fooled by the buzz over the fully guaranteed language. The difference between the money the Seattle Seahawks are likely offering and what Nick Emmanwori wants isn't nearly as big as you think. Well, what his agent wants.

Hey there, 12s! Maybe you've been on a retreat with the newest Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback and haven't kept up with the world. Welcome back. There isn't a lot of great news, and I'm sorry to say I have a bit more unpleasant information to share. The Seahawks have a bit of a problem, and it's not one they expected at all.

Neither of their two second-round draft picks, Nick Emmanworri or Elijah Arroyo, has signed their rookie deals yet. The reason they haven't signed? Blame the Texans. For some unfathomable reason, they fully guaranteed the contract for their second-round pick, Jayden Higgins.

As he was the second pick in the round, the Browns felt forced to guarantee Carson Schewisger's deal, as he was the first selection of Round 2. John Schneider hasn't offered the same to Emmanowori, hence the impasse.

The Seahawks and Nick Emmanwori are much closer in money than you think

One might argue that the Texans gave Higgins a fully guaranteed contract because he was their first overall pick. That's likely what his agent argued. Frankly, that's a pretty idiotic argument. The Seahawks have had several years when their first selection was in the second round.

I'm sure every other team in the league has as well. Regardless, the precedent was set, and it was hard for the Browns to argue that the guy drafted ahead of Higgins didn't deserve the same consideration.

Which brings us back to Nick Emmanwori. He was the third pick of the second round, and so expects the same deal as the two drafted before him. I can't blame him. I expect him to have a very big impact on the Seahawks defense. For that matter, Arroyo could play his way into the starting tight end position. No one doubts their potential value on the field.

So it's about the contracts, obviously. Here's the thing, though. That phrase, "fully guaranteed", makes it seem like the Seahawks and Emmanwori are millions of dollars apart. They're already very close.

The truth is that second-round picks already have the bulk of their contracts guaranteed. According to overthecap.com, the percentage that's guaranteed drops with every draft slot. Last year, the 35th overall pick's deal was guaranteed for 88.1 percent. That was an increase of more than five percent over 2023.

Nick Emmanwori's contract value is slotted at $10.68 million over four years. Let's assume that in normal circumstances - without the chicanery wrought by the Texans - the guaranteed portion would have increased by two percent. We'll give John Schneider a break here.

So the total dollars that the Seahawks are likely offering is about $9.6 million, and could easily be closer to $10 million. I don't even have to get mathy to see the difference is a million dollars, or even less. On the face of it, it's absurd to be at an impasse over such a small amount. That's small by NFL standards, of course.

It's not about the dollars

It isn't about the money or Emmanwori himself. The 49ers just signed their second-round pick, Alfred Collins, to his contract. 88 percent of it is guaranteed money, per The Athletic. Collins was the 43rd overall selection, and that's key to the issue. In 2023, that slot was guaranteed 78 percent of their money. That's a hefty 10 percent increase.

It's very likely now that Arroyo will sign, as he was the 50th pick. He cannot reasonably expect a fully guaranteed deal when the guy taken seven spots ahead of him settled. Last year's 50th pick had 68 percent of their deal guaranteed, almost seven percent higher than 2023's deal. Expect Arroyo and the Seahawks to agree to a similar jump, somewhere between seven and ten percent.

That still leaves Emmanwori and Schneider - well, Emmanwori's agent - at the negotiating table. Excel Sports Management is reputedly one of the more hardline agencies. And we know how tough Schneider can be. I mean, if he'll send future Hall of Famers on their way over money, he isn't likely to budge over a rookie, no matter how good he is.

Emmanwori may be Bam Bam 2.0, but not even Kam Chancellor could win his holdout for a new deal. The rookie can't afford to miss time in camp, especially with the multiple roles they see for him.

I expect that the Seahawks will hold the line at a fully guaranteed deal, but move the needle by increasing that percentage. If Schneider offers a 95 percent guarantee, that's a seven percent jump over last year's slotted deal.

Instead of a guaranteed $10.68 million, Nick will have to settle for "just" $10.15 million. Breaking that 10 million price point would be important, psychologically. Heck, a six percent bump would do it.

All we 12s can hope is that both sides see some reason here, get the man almost all of his money, and allow the team to keep that line drawn in