The 2025 NFL Rookie of the Year market has opened and Las Vegas Raiders first round draft pick Ashton Jeanty has emerged as the favorite. The sixth overall pick barely edged out the number one overall selection, Cam Ward, of the Tennessee Titans.
“After initially opening up as the second betting favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty is now the betting favorite at +270 at FanDuel Sportsbook,” wrote Brian Giuffra of Sports Illustrated. “He was +340 at FanDuel in the immediate aftermath of the draft, but has seen his odds shorten dramatically since. ”
The OROY trophy has not gone to a running back since 2018, when Saquon Barkley took it home for his New York giants. Since then, the award has gone to four quarterbacks and a pair of wide receivers. ESPN’s Ben Solak did a deep dive on the history of the OROY trophy and he too warned of an emerging trend.
“In 2004, Ben Roethlisberger became only the second QB to win the award,” Solak wrote. “But since Roethlisberger, nine of the 20 Offensive Rookies of the Year have been quarterbacks.”
This is one reason why Cam Ward is the favorite on Solak’s “way-too-early” rookie of the year rankings.
The Argument For Jeanty
The pillar supporting the argument for the young running back is that he was the single most productive running back college football has seen in a decade. The back totaled more than 2,600 yards on the ground with 30 total touchdowns in just 14 games.
Additionally, if the past is any indicator of what we can expect from the new coaching staff in Vegas, running the football will be paramount for the black and silver next season.
“Though the Raiders’ offensive line doesn’t necessarily lend itself to inspiring run-game visions, the combination of offensive coordinator Chip Kelly and a backfield bereft of competition spells a high-volume future for Jeanty,” Solak wrote.
Giuffra echoed this sentiment, pointing out that there is multiple ways for the offensive weapon to get home.
“Jeanty was selected by the Raiders with the No. 6 pick and should be utilized heavily in their offense,” Giuffra wrote. “New Raiders coach Pete Carroll has a history of leaning on the running game and new QB Geno Smith likes throwing check downs to RBs too.”
Two Years Of Quarterback Bias
Though all signs point to Jeanty having a massive year under the Riaders’ new leadership, the past two years of voting make this a risky player to bet on. Each of the last two NFL seasons showcased historically good pass catchers going up against statistically solid quarterbacks in the voting booth.
“In 2023, quarterback C.J. Stroud won the award over Puka Nacua despite the fact that the wide receiver set rookie records in both receptions (105) and yardage (1,486),” Solak recalls. “In 2024, Jayden Daniels won the award over tight end Brock Bowers, who broke Nacua’s rookie receptions record with 112 and Mike Ditka’s mark for most receiving yards by a rookie tight end with 1,194. Ditka’s record had stood since 1961.”
Clearly historic seasons aren’t enough to dethrone a productive rookie quarterback, so if Jeanty wants to bring home the bacon, he is going to have to leave no room for doubt.
