Predict Losing Record for Re-Tooled Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons have been one of the busiest teams in the offseason heading into 2024. They made a splash by signing Kirk Cousins, the top-available free agent quarterback, to a four-year contract with $100-million guaranteed.
They also added wide receiver Darnell Mooney in free agency to serve as WR2 to Drake London. They filled their two-biggest holes on defense with Pro Bowl players in Matt Judon at Edge and Justin Simmons at safety.
They're getting star players healthy like tight end Kyle Pitts and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett while linebacker Troy Andersen looks to enter the "star" category after missing last season.
They still have the easiest schedule in the easiest division.
All of that adds to: One more win, according to Sports Illustrated's Conor Orr.
The Atlanta Falcons won seven games last year with quarterbacks Desmond Ridder, since traded, cut, and re-signed to the Arizona Cardinals practice squad, and Taylor Heinicke who was just shipped to LA for a conditional-sixth-round pick.
One more win?
To be fair, Orr took on the Herculean task of trying to predict every game in the NFL in his recent piece on SI. There are going to be more detractors than fans on a task like this.
Orr has the Falcons' schedule shaping up like this:
A 3-2 start looks promising against a front-loaded schedule. Then the Panthers pick up their first win of the season against the Falcons in Week 6 en route to a 4-13 record. Atlanta also loses on the road to Denver (5-12), Minnesota (7-10), and Las Vegas (6-11) before losing at home to the Giants (8-9).
Orr hits on several questions the Falcons have coming into the season as reason for his skepticism.
"There is a lot to buy into with this Falcons team, when you take a step back and think about it," wrote Orr. "We have to buy into the fact that Drake London is good and the Zac Robinson scheme is ideally suited for him. We have to buy into the fact that Bijan Robinson will stay healthy at the game’s most perilous position. We have to buy into Kyle Pitts again, despite his length proving to be a bit of a thorny issue. We have to buy into Kirk Cousins coming back from his Achilles tear.
"Normally, when there are so many question marks, I’ll take the optimist’s view and believe half of them will work out. Let’s say Cousins and London are a good combination. Let’s say Robinson goes for 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards. Let’s say Pitts has a Sam LaPorta–like season. Would any of that hurl them over the edge in a division with some tough, salty old defenses? I have Atlanta losing in Weeks 2 and 3 to the Eagles and Chiefs, respectively, and also to Denver and New Orleans in back-to-back road trips later on in the season. This schedule is nowhere near intimidating, and it will be their ability to prove me wrong on the latter games, the winnable ones against the league’s middle class, that bear out whether the Falcons are the best of what I think they can be (an 11-victory division winner) or somewhere vying for second place."
Yes, the Falcons have questions - every team does. But the Falcons have answers for virtually every question Orr has.
Do we buy that Drake London is good? Yes, yes we do.
Is Zac Robinson's scheme a good fit for him? I hate to answer a question with a question, but can it be any worse that Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke throwing to London in an Arthur Smith Scheme?
What about a Bijan Robinson injury? Tyler Allgeier ran for over 1,000 yards as a rookie and nearly 700 yards splitting time with Robinson last year. He's not Robinson, but he's arguably the best No. 2 in the NFL.
What about the enigma that is Kyle Pitts? The Falcons have been gushing about Pitts this offseason. He's fully healthy after then Chicago Bears safety Eddie Jackson went low into the back of Pitts's knee in the open in Week 11 of 2022. But the jury is still out on Pitts's renaissance.
Kirk Cousins coming back from a torn Achilles? Cousins has been a full go in the preseason including sprints, though limited. And here's the thing, If Michael Penix Jr. was the starting quarterback for the Atlanta Falcons in 2023 instead of the Washington Huskies, the Falcons win more than seven games last year.
Yes, a 23-year old Michael Penix Jr. would have been a better quarterback in the NFL last season than Desmond Ridder.
This is not the 2023 New York Jets - a team whose season ended on their first-offensive series with Aaron Rodgers's injury. There are redundancies built in, including quarterback.
We don't have to buy in to the fact that every question will come up with the answer "yes" for this Falcons team to be considerably better than they were in 2023. We just have to buy in that not every answer will come up negative.
Atlanta doesn't need Drake London to be a star, for Kirk Cousins to be a Pro Bowler, Bijan Robinson to combine for 2,000 yards from scrimmage, and Kyle Pitts to be a unicorn for this team to improve in 2024.
Any one of those questions being answered in the affirmative makes the 2024 Atlanta Falcons better.
And we haven't even started on the defense.
The three-biggest holes the Falcons had going into the offseason were quarterback, edge rusher, and safety.
Kirk Cousins or Michael Penix is an upgrade at quarterback. Bud Dupree played well for the Falcons last year, but Matt Judon's resume wins here, and Justin Simmons over Richie Grant speaks for itself.
FanDuel places the Over/Under on wins of this Falcons squad at 9.5. Flip two of the five-bad losses Orr has against losing teams, and his 8-9, quickly becomes 10-7.
The Atlanta Falcons may fall flat on their face this year, and winning the offseason amounted to nothing. But it's hard to picture Atlanta eeking out one more win after all of the positive changes on paper.
If that's the case, Arthur Smith was doing miracle work to win seven games last year, and they never should have fired him.
