Jayden Daniels of the Washington Commanders looks on prior to the NFC Championship Game against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.
The Washington Commanders exceeded the expectations of many in 2024. Jayden Daniels looks like the next superstar quarterback in the league, Dan Quinn got the defense playing competitive football again in short order, and general manager Adam Peters made multiple aggressive moves this offseason to improve the roster.
Fans have good reason to be optimistic about the team having a legitimate shot at appearing in a Super Bowl for the first time in over 30 years entering this season.
Yet, an NFL Analyst identified one important stat from the 2024 season that ‘screams regression’ for the Commanders entering the 2025 campaign.
Can the Commanders Duplicate Their 87% Conversion Rate on Fourth Down in 2025?
You didn’t read that stat incorrectly. The Washington Commanders converted on 20 of their 23 fourth-down attempts in 2024, which clocks in at 87%.
This stat caught the eye of ESPN NFL Analyst Benjamin Solak, who touched on how a slight drop in that conversion rate could impact the overall offensive production for this offense in 2025.
Solak wrote, “These are significant numbers for the 2025 season because they scream regression. While it’s reasonable to expect the Commanders to continue going for it on fourth down and converting at a decent rate (an excellent rushing quarterback is a big part of that), turning just five conversions into failures would have a huge impact on their win column. I can honestly say I am excited for the 2025 season because I want to see how Washington performs on fourth down. (I know, I’m a sicko!)”
Solak may be onto something with this success rate being an outlier because the league average of teams’ fourth-down attempts clocked in at 56.18%. You don’t need to be a math major to see the Commanders were more than 30% better than the average NFL team in this category.
Additionally, it’s not like we are talking about an ultra-conservative that attempted going for it on fourth down on like five occasions. The Commanders ranked 15th in the league in fourth down conversion attempts in 2024.
Solak added, “It’s almost certainly the best fourth-down season in history. Two teams since 2000 have better conversion rates (2016 Cowboys and 2018 Chargers), but with far fewer attempts (nine and 10, respectively). By total EPA added (44.3), this was the most impactful fourth-down season this century. In fact, 23.7% of the Commanders’ total points came on drives that included a successful fourth-down conversion, which is the fifth-highest number of the century.”
Is it Feasible for the Commanders to Get Better in This Category with the Additions to the Offense This Offseason?
Expecting to improve upon the 87% fourth down conversion rate may feel foolish, but the offense did make multiple noteworthy additions this offseason to consider.
The Commanders addressed the offensive line in a big way by trading for LT Laremy Tunsil and drafting Oregon OT Josh Conerly Jr. in the first round this offseason, which should help improve both the protection and rushing attack in 2025.
Additionally, Washington acquired WR Deebo Samuel from the San Francisco 49ers via trade. His dynamic YAC ability feels like a perfect complement to Terry McLaurin in this Kliff Kingsbury offense.
Ultimately, this stat isn’t likely to sustain in 2025, but if Daniels builds off of his outstanding rookie year with more talent around him… Then Commanders fans will likely forgive any small drop off in this metric.
