After finishing the 2023 season with a disappointing 9-8 record, the Seattle Seahawks are looking to turn things around. The team decided to move on from Pete Carroll in favor of Mike Macdonald. More notably, the Seahawks brought in Ryan Grubb, who just led the Washington Huskies offensive to a monster 2023 season.
Despite the Seahawks woes in 2023, they have quite a few offensive weapons in DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Tyler Lockett, Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet. However, I believe Noah Fant will break out and help propel the offense to a monster 2024 campaign.
Prospect Profile
For those who may have forgotten, Noah Fant was a first-round pick (20th overall) in the 2019 NFL draft. What makes this draft capital so impressive is that Fant was able to accomplish this while playing behind T.J. Hockenson at Iowa. In Fant’s last collegiate season, he had a respectable 39-519-7 stat line compared to Hockenson, who had a 49-760-6 (receptions-receiving yards-touchdowns) season. Fant has also shown flashes of elite athleticism, and his 9.88 RAS backs that up.
Historical Comparisons
Historically, two of the most predictive metrics for finding tight end breakouts come down to this criteria. Tight ends on their second team and/or second contract. Second-round pick Martellus Bennett was terrible on the Cowboys before taking a significant leap to a 55-625-5 season on the Giants. Bennett would then go on to improve even more before peaking at a 90-916-6 season two years later with the Bears.
More recently, David Njoku broke out on his second contract and posted an 81-882-6 season in 2023. Although the Browns aren’t exactly a powerhouse, Njoku helped push Joe Flacco to an 11-6 season. The reason why we’re looking at this data is because Fant just signed a two-year, 21-million-dollar extension with the Seahawks. The team is giving their stamp of approval and paying him starting money for the next few years.
Team Fit
On the surface, Fant has been awful with the Seahawks. Despite putting up a 68-670-4 season in 2021 with the Broncos, he’s never been able to cross 500 receiving yards since being traded to the Seahawks. However, it’s also worth noting that Will Dissly and Colby Parkinson also saw the field quite a bit. In fact, in 2023, Fant only had a 54.3% snap share.
If you’re expecting production out of your tight end, this is a ridiculously low number. Based on the kind of offense Grubb runs, I would expect this number to increase to around 70% in 2024. Seeing this kind of jump in usage often leads to a significant increase in production.
Late Breakout Age
We’ve been spoiled by Sam LaPorta’s historic rookie season, but tight ends typically take a long time to break out. Historically, 40.8% of tight ends peak between their age 25 and 27 season (apexfantasyleagues.com). Despite being in the NFL for quite some time, Fant is only 26 years old. With all of these factors considered, I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if Fant has a career year in 2024.
