In their Week 4 matchup with the Packers, the Vikings jumped out to a 28-0 lead with touchdowns on four of their first five drives. The defense did its part in that game, with two interceptions and a turnover on downs in Green Bay’s first five drives, but the offense was the main driver of success.
defense wins the day
This time, defense was the story of the first half. Minnesota’s offense started out the game with a punt and a missed field goal. They followed that up with three consecutive scoring drives but had still scored only 13 points by halftime. The other side of the ball picked them up, allowing only three points in five drives.
The key was third- and fourth-down performance. The Packers went eight for 15 on third or fourth down in the game but were only one for six through the air on those downs in the first half.
How did the Vikings shut down Green Bay’s offense? The answer is man coverage. The Packers dropped back 13 times on third/fourth down. Minnesota played man on 11 of those snaps, or 85%. On the other two, they played match coverages that kind of looked like man.
Minnesota’s secondary dared Green Bay’s receivers to beat them, and they couldn’t until the game was out of reach.
trending towards tight coverage
Playing that much man was a bit out of character for the Vikings, but they have ramped up the usage as they approach the playoffs. The Vikings rarely ran man coverage in 2023 because they didn’t trust their cornerbacks. This year, you’ve seen DC Brian Flores’ trust in Stephon Gilmore, Byron Murphy, and Shaq Griffin increase as the season has gone along and seen an increase in man coverage because of it.
I’ve charted every coverage snap from Minnesota’s defense this season. They’ve played man on 98 of 209 opponent dropbacks on third and fourth down, a 47% rate. But that rate has increased significantly since playing the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 10. In their first 10 games, the Vikings ran man coverage on only 38% of third and fourth downs. From the Tennessee Titans game onwards, they’ve run it 58% of the time, or on 53 of 92 opportunities.
The Vikings are trending toward playing man when it counts. They still run a bunch of zone on first and second down, running man on only seven of 25 (28%) early-down dropbacks against the Packers. Man is harder to execute. It requires defenders to play sticky to opposing receivers, but it also often creates tighter windows for opponents to throw into. That leads to higher variance from both sides, and Minnesota’s defense is thriving off of that variance.
Let’s look at the tape to investigate how the Vikings shut the Packers down on third and fourth downs.
film review
The most critical set of downs in the first half came on Green Bay’s fourth drive. They got down into scoring range but ended up failing on fourth-and-two. The Vikings made a critical third-down stop and then followed that up with another one. Let’s look at those two plays.
On the first play, the Packers try to go fast and confuse Minnesota’s defense by presenting a 4×1 look. The Vikings quickly communicate coverage responsibilities pre-snap, but there’s still some confusion post-snap.
However, Minnesota’s rules help them sort it out. Gilmore passes off Romeo Doubs, running a shallow route, to Harrison Smith, the robber. Dontayvion Wicks runs an over-the-ball route, which I believe is Byron Murphy’s responsibility. Freed of his man responsibility, Gilmore is the new robber who can help with the route over the middle. Josh Metellus has press on the RB, Emanuel Wilson, while Blake Cashman and Murphy appear to go for Jayden Reed, who is in the backfield at the snap.
In his dropback, Jordan Love is processing from left to right. He sees Reed covered by Murphy, but his next read is Doubs, who has Smith coming down from depth. He thinks Doubs has the space to turn upfield for the first, but Murphy does a great job keeping his eyes in the backfield. Recognizing the quick throw, Murphy can come off Reed to tackle Doubs short of the sticks.
Next, let’s move to the fourth-down play. Here, we have a more traditional 3×1 set from the Packers. You can see that the Vikings are playing Cover 1 Rat, with Smith as the deep player and Cashman as the Rat. Love’s read is from left to right, and he has Reed open against Murphy on the slant.
Love makes the throw, but it’s low, leading Reed to prevent Murphy from catching up. Because he has to adjust, Reed can’t make the catch. Arguably, most receivers should make this play, but it’s not exactly wide open.
Opposing offenses are good. In many cases, the defense is trying to make life hard for the offense rather than completely smothering them. In this case, Minnesota’s coverage made Reed’s catch opportunity difficult, and he couldn’t rise to the occasion.
don’t panic
The combined experience of Minnesota’s secondary strongly benefits them in critical situations. Gilmore, Griffin, and Murphy have a combined 27 seasons of experience. Despite facing the most passes of any NFL team, they’ve only taken eight defensive pass-interference penalties and one combined defensive holding/illegal contact penalty. They’re battle-tested and understand how to recover when they get beaten rather than commit a penalty.
The play below is a great example of that. On third-and-10, the Packers send Bo Melton in motion to run a wheel route. Murphy has to follow him and is in control all the way across the field and deep for tight coverage. Love targets Melton, but he overthrows the ball.
But perhaps more interesting is what happens with Gilmore and Griffin. Both of Green Bay’s receivers run deep crossing concepts — a great way to attack man coverage. Both receivers win with inside releases and stack the defenders vertically. But neither Griffin nor Gilmore panic and hold the receiver, which would give the Packers a free first down.
Instead, they understand they have over-the-top help from Minnesota’s two safeties and the likely route combinations from the Packers receivers. Gilmore keeps his eyes on Doubs and breaks on the crosser right underneath him, perfect coverage and in position for an interception had Love thrown the ball there. Griffin makes an even more aggressive move, taking an inside path and ending up right underneath Reed’s crosser.
Trust in the defensive structure and veteran savvy led to the Vikings shutting down this Packers’ third-and-5.
The savvy also comes from the safety room. Camryn Bynum, Metellus, and Smith have played together for four years since the Vikings drafted Bynum in 2021. Smith and Bynum are typically playing zones on these plays, but Metellus is asked to erase the opposing TE. He did so very effectively against the Packers, but perhaps his best play was on the below third down that forced a field goal.
On the play, the Packers are running a mesh route. Mesh is difficult to cover in man because the receivers running mesh try to get the defenders to run into each other.
I actually charted this play as quarters for the Vikings because of the way they pass off the three-man stack from the Packers. Because Gilmore takes the in-breaking route from Reed and Murphy and Griffin allow Wicks to run through to the safety level, it looks like Box, which is a Quarters concept. However, on the back side, Metellus and Cashman are locked in man coverage. This is also a match concept, so Gilmore functionally has man coverage after the routes distribute.
You can see that the mesh route works. Metellus has to drift off TE Luke Musgrave, going from the five to the two as he crossed the field. Still, his athleticism allows him to make the play. He comes back downfield and makes the tackle at the four, forcing a Packers’ FG. Metellus’ recognition and ability to avoid running into Gilmore saved the Vikings four points.
pass-rush Assistance
Good defense requires all 11 players to play in concert. Defenders can only cover for so long, so the pass rush is critical to help the coverage.
Pass rush and coverage mix perfectly on the play below, where Jonathan Greenard forces an errant throw. Greenard has an excellent get off, and simply runs around LT Rasheed Walker to hit Love. Murphy had great coverage on the route, and Smith was almost able to pick off the errant throw.
The Vikings are an aggressive team and love to blitz. Last year, they couldn’t play man coverage behind those blitzes. However, not this season. They’re much more comfortable sending a true man blitz, which they’ve done on 30 snaps, or about a third of their man-coverage snaps this year.
They’re also more comfortable green dogging, like on the play below. In this scenario, Cashman has the RB in man coverage. However, instead of covering him, he eliminates him by blitzing and forcing him to stay in to protect.
The stunt is effective, forcing Love from the pocket. That’s a good thing. The Packers beat Minnesota’s man coverage with a two-man stack release, making it difficult for Murphy to cover a dig route. Murphy collides with Wicks as he tries to cut across the field to cover Reed.
On the defensive line, Greenard plays contain to the outside, forcing Love to run toward the sideline. By the time Love releases the ball, Murphy has caught up to Reed. Greenard tips the pass as thrown, enabling Murphy to swat the ball down without a flag.
Speaking of man blitz, here’s a true third-down blitz from the Vikings. They are in their “5-0” package on defense, which has that name because it forces the offense into man-to-man protection, or “5-0.” Each lineman is assigned to block one defender, which leaves them susceptible to stunts.
On the play, the Vikings run a “Truck” stunt, with Greenard, at 3t, and Ward, at 0t, crashing to free up Cashman, the opposite 3t, on the stunt. The problem with stunting is that it takes a couple of extra steps to get to the QB. If you play zone, the QB can find a quick hole.
Here, the Vikings play man and it’s good enough, with an interesting wrinkle. Smith widens out as if he’s a deep safety at the snap, and Gilmore and Griffin are playing off coverage, potentially indicating zone. In reality, Smith has man coverage on the RB from depth.
Flores has done this often this year. While it leaves a lot of space for the RB, it takes a long time for the QB to get to him on the checkdown. This leaves time for the blitz to get home before the QB can progress all the way to the RB.
When Love drops back, he is probably expecting zone coverage. The coverage turning into man creates hesitation. The hesitation gave enough time for Cashman and Andrew Van Ginkel, who roasted RT Zach Tom on a normal speed rush, to get home for the sack.
Conclusion
Minnesota’s two wins against the Packers were a team effort on both sides of the ball, but different sides took the lead in each game. In the first game, the offense jumped out to an early lead. In the second, the Vikings’ defense held Green Bay down until the Vikings offense could take a commanding lead.
In both cases, the Vikings beat their most bitter rival convincingly despite close scores. Minnesota’s increased use of man coverage was critical to their ability to stop third- and fourth-downs in the game. Great coverage from CBs Byron Murphy, Stephon Gilmore, and Shaq Griffin, combined with help from Harrison Smith, Cam Bynum, and Josh Metellus on the back end and pass rush from Jonathan Greenard, Andrew Van Ginkel, and Blake Cashman on the defensive line to dominate the Packers.
The Vikings going 2-0 against Green Bay feels sweet — but 14-2 and a shot at the No. 1 seed in Detroit next week is even sweeter.
Photo Credit: Dan Powers via Imagn Images
The Minnesota Vikings did it. They overcame their holiday demons, the Green Bay Packers, to set up a win-and-get-a-bye game against the Detroit Lions. The defense held early in the game, allowing the offense time to get going. They never looked back after going up 20-3, ending up with a 27-25 win.
