Mel Kiper has Atlanta Falcons Take High-Risk Defender in 1st Mock Draft

The Atlanta Falcons named Jeff Ulbrich their defensive coordinator over the weekend. Ulbrich returns to the Falcons after last being seen in Atlanta as the fill-in defensive coordinator for Raheem Morris in 2020. That team finished the season 29th in total defense.

Ulbrich had a successful stint in the same position for the New York Jets including three top-five defenses in each of the last-three seasons.

The Falcons haven't had a defense finish top five in total defense since 1978, and it's only happened twice in the team's history (1977).

The Falcons drafted for the future in 2024 including defensive linemen to eventually replace Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata, and of course, they selected quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to take over from Kirk Cousins.

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The future started early for Penix as Kirk Cousins stumbled badly the second half of the season, but the Falcons have a chance to draft an immediate-impact player on defense at No. 15 this year.

Ulbrich's unit needs an influx of talent at every position. Defensive line, linebacker, cornerback, and safety should all be on the table when Atlanta is on the clock in April.

One of the more popular picks for the Falcons is Texas A&M defensive end Shemar Stewart.

The grandaddy of mock drafts, Mel Kiper Jr., released his first mock of the season on Wednesday, and he went with Stewart at No. 15 as well.

"Expect to hear this name a lot more as we get into predraft events," wrote Kiper on ESPN+. "Stewart still has some development ahead, but his athletic traits at 6-foot-6, 290 pounds could push him up the board this spring. Atlanta was 31st in sacks (31) and 27th in pass rush win rate (34.1%) this season, and it hasn't done nearly enough to clean up that weakness.

"Stewart didn't rack up sacks in college -- 1.5 in 2024 -- but he has the potential to break out in a big way in the pros."

Getting off the bus, Stewart will be one of the best-looking prospects at the draft, and he is expected to test extremely well at the NFL Combine in February. However, he had 4.5 sacks in his three seasons with the Aggies.

That level of production, or lack thereof, should set off alarm bells for the Falcons. Atlanta needs an immediate shot of production on defense, and while every prospect is a risk, Stewart seems to be a bigger risk than most.

To be fair, at 6-foot-6 and 290 pounds, Stewart played on the edge a lot for the Aggies. While he was capable of manning that position, his body type dictates he should be closer to the ball at end or even defensive tackle, especially in pass-rush situations.

The questions evaluators will have over the course of the next three months will be include why wasn't he more productive inside? Is he capable of lining head up over the offensive tackle? Can he withstand a double team from a guard? Were the defensive tackles for the Aggies so good that Stewart was needed more on the edge?

Stewart is scheduled to attend the Reese's Senior Bowl in Mobile, Ala. next week, and a lot of those questions will be answered. He'll line up in a controlled environment in one vs. one situations against some of the nation's best offensive tackles.

Can he beat them more regularly than he was asked to do in college? We'll be in attendance all-three days and will pay particular attention to a player with his physical gifts.

There's plenty of time to get answers to the questions that make him a big risk at No. 15 overall for the Atlanta Falcons. Come April, he might not be a risk at all... or he might find himself much lower on draft boards.