The Washington Commanders are a completely different franchise since these two teams last met in the 2020-2021 Wild Card Round, so it feels weird to say the Commanders are looking to avenge that playoff loss.
However, we can say Jayden Daniels and co. are looking to avenge the Week 1 loss from earlier in the year. So we'll just run with that.
Regardless, this should be a very interesting game. Week 1's 37-20 defeat should also have an asterisk beside it, as these two rosters and teams aren't the same as they were back in September. A lot has changed since then, both for the good and bad, so this weekend's game is more of an unknown, than anything.
But one thing that's been cemented throughout the season is both team's quick passing attack. The Commanders and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers throw the ball at a quicker rate than most and both offenses are good at it.
Per Next Gen Stats, the Commanders have 254 attempts worth of passes coming out under 2.5 seconds and the Bucs have 272. Those numbers rank 13th and 10th, respectively, that include a 44.2% rate and a 44.5% rate for each team.
The Bucs are fifth in passing yards per game via passes under 2.5 seconds at 103.5 yards per game and the Commanders are 12th at 94.4 yards per game. The yardage equals 41.3% of the Bucs' total passing yards per game and 43.8% of the Commanders', while the Bucs are sixth with a mark of +0.22 EPA/attempt and the Commanders are tied for 12th at +0.13 EPA/attempt. So it's easy to see how and why this is a staple of both offenses.
But the advantage for the Commanders offense lies within the Bucs defense. When defending these kinds of passes, the Bucs allow the second-most yards per game at 112.8, which comes out to 33% of their total pass yards allowed. Their 6.6 yards per pass play allowed is eighth-most and their +178 yards over contact per expected are tied for ninth-highest.
It's the last number that's important. When it comes to yards after the catch, 60.4% of the yards the Bucs have allowed after the catch are the result of quick passes. On the flip side, 71% of the yards after the catch gained by the Commanders offense are off of quick passes.
The Bucs are going to have to make sure their tackling is on point when the Commanders throw the ball, because it hasn't been the case this year. Per Pro Football Focus, the Bucs missed the third-most tackles in pass plays at 88. Only the Atlanta Falcons (96) and Miami Dolphins (91) missed more. The NFL average, as a whole, for missed tackles during pass plays was around 69.6 per team for the year. So, the Bucs were nearly 17 missed tackles over the league average and a whole missed tackle at 5.2 per game compared to the league average of 4.1 per game.
If the Commanders can make the quick passing game effective, it'll cause the Bucs defense to play closer to the line/the receivers, which then allows Kliff Kingsbury to take some deep shots or even run a fake screen-type play like we've seen before. There are a lot of advantages that come with an effective attack such as this.
Brian Robinson Jr. and the running game is still the key to this offense, as we saw how much Jayden Daniels and co. struggled last week in the first half after finishing with 16 dropbacks to just three running back runs. But make no mistake: The Commanders can do a lot of damage through the quick passing game, especially to this defense.
Commanders defense has allowed some plays to the quick passing game, as well
While the advantage lays more in the Commanders offense's favor, the defense is going to have to make sure it contains the Bucs' quick passing attack, as well.
Not just for the aforementioned numbers, but also because of the fact that Dan Quinn's unit is tied for the second-most touchdowns allowed via passes under 2.5 seconds, at 15. The defense also allows the 11th-highest EPA/att at +0.09.
It's certainly more of a "contained" allowance as opposed to what the Bucs defense has does. But still, with Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan, and Bucky Irving on the field, the Commanders defense is going to have to step up in a big way.
