Denver Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton signed a four-year, $60 million contract back in 2021. The 2018 second-round pick signed for less money than some may have expected, given the receiver market at the time.
Fast forward to today, and Sutton enters the final year of that deal. The Broncos did renegotiate the final two years of the deal, in which Sutton can earn up to $1.5M in incentives based on his performance.
The question, though, is whether Sutton will actually be extended and, if so, for how much. Let's look at the current receiver market and see what Sutton might get.
Wide Receiver Tiers
Let's make one thing clear: Sutton isn't an elite No. 1 wide receiver but he's a good one. That means while he won't become one of the highest-paid receivers once he signs a new deal, he's likely going to see a significant raise about the $15M APY salary from the deal he signed back in 2021.
Top receivers are getting upwards of $30M APY, but Sutton isn't going to approach that number. Then you have receivers who might be considered among the best No. 2 receivers in the NFL, some of whom could be a No. 1 for certain teams. Those receivers, such as Tee Higgins, Jaylen Waddle, and Devonta Smith, earn $25M to $29M APY salary.
Sutton won't necessarily approach a salary in that range but he will come close. That's because when you look at the next tier, you find receivers who are comparable to Sutton for one reason or another.
Three Comparable Receivers
Let's start with Michael Pittman Jr., who signed a three-year, $68M contract back in 2024 with $41M fully guaranteed. Pittman is a good-but-not-great No. 1 wide receiver who might be more productive if the Colts get better quarterback play in 2025.
Then we can look at Calvin Ridley, who got a four-year, $92M contract with $50M fully guaranteed in 2024. Ridley was a productive player last season, even with a lack of quality quarterback play. He was also drafted in 2018, so he's been in the league for as many years as Sutton.
A third one to consider is Nico Collins, who got a three-year, $72.75M extension in 2024 with $32.116M fully guaranteed. Collins has been a reasonably productive player the past two seasons, though he's not an elite receiver by any means.
What it Means for Sutton
If we use these three players as the basis for a new contract for Sutton, a four-year, $98M contract would make sense. That averages $24.5M per year. The Broncos could offer $52M in full guarantees, which would surpass Ridley's full guarantees.
If Sutton were extended prior to the start of the 2025 season, he could get a signing bonus that would give him additional money beyond the $14M he's already due this season.
The Broncos could then structure the contract so he has all money in 2026 fully guaranteed, and possibly a portion of his 2027 salary fully guaranteed. However, the Broncos wouldn't want to guarantee too much because they would want to have a way to get out of the deal in 2027 without too much pain.
The Broncos could offer Sutton something in return for 2027 by having a roster bonus that gets paid out no later than the fifth day of the 2027 league year. This means the Broncos would have to make a decision early on about whether to keep Sutton, and if they cut him, he'd get a chance to find another team early in free agency.
In summary, any extension Sutton gets should be a "two years then we'll see" type of deal, meaning the Broncos keep him for 2025 or 2026 but have a possible way out in 2027 and a definite way out in 2028. He turns 30 this year, so the Broncos don't want to be committed to him for too many years past 2025.
Are the Broncos prepared to extend him? Time will tell, but if the Broncos do want to keep him, extending him before the 2025 season starts may be the best option.
