The Celtics faced long odds to come back from a 3-1 series deficit even before losing Jayson Tatum to a torn Achilles. Only 13 teams (4.4 percent) of teams in NBA history have rallied from down 3-1 in the playoffs and none since Nuggets managed to do it twice in their run to the West Finals in 2020.
Boston has pulled off the improbable feat twice in franchise history (1981, 1968, both vs. 76ers) but there is some promising evidence they are capable of becoming the 36th team in NBA history to force a Game 7 after trailing 3-1.
Joe Mazzulla and his staff successfully navigated the loss of Tatum and another lackluster performance from Kristaps Porzingis in Game 5. Let’s take a look at the keys to keeping the series alive as the degree of difficulty jumps in Madison Square Garden for Game 6.
Starting lineup choices
The Celtics have played with double bigs all year long with Jayson Tatum out (while otherwise healthy). However, that formula has not proven successful against a versatile Knicks lineup on the wings that can target Kristaps Porzingis in switches happily.
Moving Porzingis to the bench seems like an easy choice for Mazzulla in Game 6 and benching him entirely made end up being the right call given his struggles all postseason. Luke Kornet got the nod alongside Al Horford to start the second half of Game 5 once Porzingis was benched but starting double bigs risks the possibility of one of those two guys getting in foul trouble early. Boston may be simply better off going with three guards and giving Payton Pritchard the nod. In that event, Kornet could come off the bench and split up the center minutes with Horford.
Either way, not starting Pritchard or Kornet in Game 6 feels like a big mistake for Mazzulla. Giving Porzingis a stint off the bench to see if he has anything is defensible but anything more than that by Mazzulla would be a mistake.
Payton Pritchard may be answer to juicing the offense
The 6th Man of the Year has been a huge weapon all series long, albeit an underutilized one. That changed in Game 5 as he played close to a team-high 39 minutes in the win and that trend needs to continue moving forward.
The Celtics have a 122.9 offensive rating in the playoffs with Pritchard on the floor, which is the highest on the roster. His +16.4 net rating in those games is also the best on the team among players appearing in at least eight games.
Pritchard gives the Knicks problems with his speed and his willingness to shoot anywhere. He’s scored in double figures in four of the five games in this series and has a positive plus/minus in all five games. He also only has three turnovers in the entire series, making him an essential weapon from keeping the Knicks from getting out in transition. The more offense the Celtics run through him and Derrick White (another low-turnover guy) in Game 6, the better.
Can Celtics survive on the glass again with their size?
The Knicks have feasted on the offensive glass in the last three games, grabbing 35 percent of their offensive rebound opportunities. The Celtics did a better job of holding their ground in this area in the second half of Game 5 but look for a more desperate Knicks team to double down in this area in Game 6. Boston may elect to start double bigs to help protect the defensive glass but they are going to need another monster effort from their guards and wings to hold up in this area.
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Mitchell Robinson and Karl-Anthony Towns are monsters on the boards when they want to be and the Celtics don’t have a strength advantage against either. Jrue Holiday and Jaylen Brown were huge on the defensive glass in Game 5 and they need to reproduce that effort again Friday night for the Celtics to extend this series.
