Coming into the 2023 season, everyone was over the moon about Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and his expectations were sky-high. While he didn’t have a horrible rookie season like Quentin Johnston, he was very underwhelming nonetheless. However, due to a number of reasons, I believe Smith-Njigba will have a monster season for the Seattle Seahawks in 2024
Elite Prospect Profile
Coming out of Ohio State, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was touted as the best wide receiver prospect in the 2023 draft class, and he ended up being the first receiver taken. I know you’ve heard this a million times by now, but it’s still unreal that he outproduced Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson as a sophomore at Ohio State. That alone speaks volumes about his ability to produce, especially out of the slot.
During his time at Ohio State, Smith-Njigba passed the eye test as well, showing off his incredible separation skills, great hands, and elite ball tracking. The only true knock you can give Smith-Njigba is that he only produced for one year and was injured as a junior. While draft capital isn’t the only thing that matters, getting first-round draft capital as a receiver drastically increases a player’s hit rate. Slot receivers, in particular, tend to fall down the board, so Smith-Njigba going 20th overall says a lot about how talented he is.
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Reason for Underwhelming 2023 Season
As we talked about in the paragraph above, Smith-Njigba was still recovering from the hamstring injury he suffered at Ohio State when he came into training camp. For a rookie to produce immediately, everything has to go right, and it’s crucial that they’re at 100% strength leading up to week one. While Smith-Njigba recovered from his hamstring injury, he suffered a wrist fracture in the pre-season and ended up having surgery.
While Smith-Njigba was back before week one, he missed out on a lot of valuable practice time. Not only was this important for his development, but missing practice took away the Seahawks ability to scheme him into their game plan early on. It’s not like he was a total bust, as he still crossed over that 500-yard mark, which typically is a good indicator of whether a player will bust or not. It’s also worth noting that Smith-Njigba had 93 targets and caught 63 passes, which isn’t a bad stat line at all.
New Offensive Scheme
After moving on from Shane Waldron, the Seahawks decided to bring in Ryan Grubb as their offensive coordinator, which will be a massive upgrade for the passing game. Many speculate that Smith-Njigba didn’t work well with Waldron after his awkward answer about him at the Super Bowl. While this interaction may mean nothing, many people also believe Waldron underutilized Smith-Njigba as a rookie.
At Washington, Grubb showed his willingness to air the ball out, as shown by his high pass and deep pass rate. I expect this to stay the same, especially since the Seahawks have one of the best trios in football with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in the mix as well. It seems like Smith-Njigba is going to be given the keys to the slot role which was previously played often by Lockett. In 2023, Lockett played his fewest slot snaps (35.2%) since 2017.
In 2024, I expect Smith-Njigba to be used similarly to how Jalen McMillan was used at Washington in 2022. If you’re not keyed into how good McMillan is, I promise this isn’t a bad thing. Under Grubb, McMillan caught 79 passes for 1,098 yards and nine touchdowns in the exact same role Smith-Njigba should be playing. For context, McMillan played 459 of his 496 snaps in the slot that season. I’m very confident that Grubb will use Smith-Njigba in this kind of role, causing him to explode in the 2024 season.
