The Seattle Seahawks made some daring acquisitions this offseason. If they all work out, the playoffs are there. If not, it could be a long season. So, just how much risk did John Schneider take by signing former Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp?
To be sure, Kupp isn't the only player Schneider's rolling the dice on. Seattle added a second free agent to the wide receiver room in Marquez Valdes-Scantling and a big-time edge rusher in Demarcus Lawrence. And of course, the player who will make it all go on offense, quarterback Sam Darnold.
Each of those players carries a fairly high element of risk. For now, let's concentrate on the man who won the triple crown of receiving in 2021, Cooper Kupp. No one expects him to put up anything close to those numbers. The real question is whether he can be counted on to put up comparable stats to his last two seasons.
The Seahawks don't need a monster season from Cooper Kupp
It's a good thing, too, because there's no way they're going to get it. No reasonable card-carrying 12 should expect it, either. In fact, had Seattle brought Kupp to town after that monster 2021 season, they'd be foolish to expect a repeat. The Rams targeted their star receiver 191 times that year.
That sounds a lot like the 140+ targets Jimmy Graham was getting in New Orleans. And we all remember how that worked out.
Kupp will be Klint Kubiak's number 2 receiver, if that. Seattle's new OC has made it abundantly clear that the Seahawks will run the ball in 2025. Last year, Seattle gave the ball to their running backs 322 times versus 593 pass attempts. Add 54 sacks, and Seattle's running backs got just 33 percent of the plays called their way.
Compare that to Kubiak's Saints last year. The running backs had their numbers called 387 times. The 551 pass attempts plus 37 sacks equaled 588 passing plays for New Orleans. Kubiak called for the run 39.6 percent of the time. Simply put, expect 60-70 more running plays and around 60 fewer passing plays from the Seahawks offense this season.
Yes, DK Metcalf's 108 targets are up for grabs, as are Tyler Lockett's 74. Bear in mind that Kubiak targeted his tight ends 144 times last season, while Ryan Grubb sent the ball their way 114 times. So now you have 60 fewer pass attempts, and another 30 going to tight ends instead of wide receivers.
Mind you, I still think the Seahawks should move Noah Fant. If he stays, that's even more reason for the wideouts to see fewer passes.
It's time to get mathy with Cooper Kupp, 12s. Even someone as dopey as me knows that Jaxon Smith-Njigba is el primo in Seattle's aerial attack. He saw 137 targets last year. Combined with the departed stars, plus solid holdovers like Jake Bobo, et al, the wide receivers were targeted 345 times in 2024.
Reduce that number - remember, Kubiak is running the ball more and targeting tight ends more as well - and the wide receivers should see roughly 280- 300 targets. JSN got 39.7 percent of all targets last year. There's no reason to think he won't get at least 35 percent this season. That's 105 targets, leaving 195 for the rest of the WR room.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling will get his share, if nothing else, to stretch the field. He was only with the Saints for eight games last year, but started all of them, getting 35 targets. He only caught 17 balls, an atrocious 48.6 percent of his targets. But he did average 22.6 yards per catch and scored four times. I can see him getting 60 targets this year. If he gets six or more touchdowns, we'll all be happy.
So that leaves 135 targets. Yes, I expect Kupp would get the bulk of these. But consider how efficient Jake Bobo has been in his first two seasons. 32 catches on 42 targets, three touchdowns, 17 first downs, and a passer rating of 109.5 when targeted.
By the way, all of those measures are higher than JSN's per target. There's no way Kubiak won't revive the chants of More Bobo. Jake needs at least 30 targets this year.
Throw in another 30 targets for whoever else makes the squad at WR. That's basically Tory Horton and Steven Sims, or Ricky White III. We're down to just...lemme see...naught plus naught, carry the naught in classic Jethro Bodine style...that's 80 targets left for Cooper Kupp. Nyah, ya thought I forgot all about him, didn't yeah?
That's a far cry from the 191 targets he saw in 2021. Then again, that was the last season Kupp played all 17 games. He missed five games in each of the last two seasons and only played in nine contests in 2022. The Seahawks don't need him to catch 100 passes.
That's the beauty of the roster. While it would be great to have him on the field for all 17 games, Seattle has the depth to overcome a few absences here or there.
Let's say he plays in 12 games again this season. That's a reasonable assumption, as he'll be involved in fewer plays. Yes, I know he's a demon when it comes to blocking, so fewer targets don't equal fewer plays. But the presence of players like Bobo and Horton, plus Kubiak's love of two-tight end sets, does mean Kupp should see fewer plays per start.
80 targets divided by 12 - shucks, that's barely even mathy. Kupp would see just under seven targets a game. At his career catch rate of 71.2 percent, that's 57 catches, or close to five per game. Some 12s might look at that as underperforming, especially as his contract carries the fifth-highest cap hit on the team.
I'll just say that 700 yards and five touchdowns would be significantly more than Noah Fant has ever done in Seattle. I like Fant, he's just vastly overpaid. So much so, you'd think he was a guard.
As to whether the Seahawks can rely on Kupp to stay healthy for at least 12 games, I'd say the evidence supporting that is pretty strong. At age 31, Wes Welker appeared in 16 games for the Patriots. He was with the Broncos the next year, 2013, and played in 13 games, starting all.
His targets dropped from 174 to 111, but he still scored 10 touchdowns. He played in 14 games the following year. Welker was considerably smaller than Kupp, too.
A better comparison is the Patriots' Julian Edelman. He missed seven games in 2015 but came back to play in all 16 the following year. He tore his ACL and missed the entire 2017 season, but bounced back to play in 28 of a possible 32 games in the next two years. Yes, he only played six games in 2020 before retiring, but I'm not too concerned about what happens three years from now.
Finally, we have Keenan Allen. After a promising start, he missed eight games in his third season, then appeared in just one game in 2016. He started in all 16 games for the next three seasons before missing two in 2020. He had no issues in 2021 but missed seven games in 2022.
Allen then played in 28 of a possible 34 games over the past two seasons. Allen is a year older than Kupp and virtually the same size as well, while Welker and Edelman are both a bit smaller.
So, the players who have put up the stats most similar to Kupp - highly productive receivers who battled back from injuries - all had good to great seasons after coming back to the field. I see every reason that Cooper Kupp will stand out as one of the Seahawks' best free agents this year.
