In another case of losing a game they should have won, the Los Angeles Rams couldn’t convert in the red zone, resulting in a disappointing 23-15 home loss to the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football. The Rams playoff flame is flickering badly and changes need to be made.
L.A. had seven trips into ‘Phins territory, but only came away with five field goals, as the Rams continuously shot themselves in the foot. In his post-game presser, Rams head coach Sean McVay focused on the poor execution and correcting those mistakes, but hinted at possible changes by remarking that “…everything is on the table.”
The offensive execution and playcalling go hand-in-hand. When the Rams run the compressed, horizontal offense and don’t work on establishing a run attack to make play action a defensive worry, defenses can squeeze down as well and don’t have as much area to cover. It is easier for the L.A. braintrust to control the game and as long as the score stays within one possession, there isn’t much need to take shots or make serious adjustments until later. Instead of flowing, the offense grinds. A combination of fewer drives (31st in NFL), plays (24th), and yards per play (19th) creates tremendous pressure on extending third down drives (26th) and scoring touchdowns (30th) in the red zone.
For its part, the L.A. under-capitalized defense played very well. Although they gave up 23 points, they allowed a season-low 238 yards and only three plays over 20 yards to an explosive Dolphin team. There are still issues with tackling, protecting the edge, and mobile/active quarterbacks, but after a rough start, the defense has improved into the top half of most NFL statistical categories.
Quarterback
There are many reasons why Matthew Stafford (70, 100%) is struggling and the whole offense along with him, but let me touch on one. The compressed offense creates a lot of quick, one-read throws and Stafford is not playing up to par. According to Pro Football Focus, Stafford (through Week 9) ranks #31 out of 37 with a first-read score of 56.8. Compare that with 2023 when he was #2 overall and a 87.1 score.
Running back
You can’t fault Kyren Williams (65, 93%) for the Rams inability to establish a run game, that is a playcalling problem that has to be figured out. But now that he’s fumbled in consecutive games and if everything is really “on the table”, should the Rams consider the possibility of a few more snaps going towards Blake Corum (5, 7%)? He’s not getting as much work as Ronnie Rivers did at RB#2.
Wide receiver
With Cooper Kupp (63, 90%) and Puka Nacua (55, 79%) rounding into form after returning from injuries, it would seem the offense wouldn’t be sputtering as much as it is. At WR#3, Demarcus Robinson (58, 83%) has been hit and miss. While he does offer a mid-depth target, his catch percentage is only a hair above 50%.
Having both Kupp and Nacua back has really cut into the snaps of Tutu Atwell (13, 19%), Tyler Johnson (10, 14%), and Jordan Whittington (5, 7%). The L.A. passing offense appeared to move somewhat freer in the second half, with adjustments and Atwell running some deep clear outs. Johnson’s stats are actually better than Robinson’s if extrapolated over the same amount of reps. After returning from a shoulder injury, Whittington’s snaps were down for a second straight week, but the Rams did have him returning kickoffs.
Tight end
Davis Allen (56. 80%) received the lion’s share of reps. Good on him for supplanting Colby Parkinson (11, 16%) and Hunter Long (9, 13%), but the unit only highlights the Rams struggle with three backup grade tight ends.
None are particularly physical, nor exciting. In limited play, it appears to me that Long is the best all-around, although his snap counts are tied to L.A.’s use of two-tight end sets, not as a “go to” player.
Offensive line
The Rams were taking a big chance when they decided to return Steve Avila (70, 100%) and Joshua Jackson (70, 100%) to the starting lineup. While it’s true they are proven players and better than the rookies they replaced, they were both coming off multi-week layoffs, and the rust showed. With Joseph Noteboom (70, 100%) also subbing in off a long interval, it created cohesion problems for the whole game.
The whole offensive line including Alaric Jackson (70, 100%) and Kevin Dotson (70, 100%) were not together enough to handle the stunts/loops/twists. Each one of the five completely whiffed on a play that ended in untouched pressure/sack. In the second half, they found some success running the mid zone off tackle and getting around the edge.
Special teams
Punter Ethan Evans (13) had a good day, booting all his kickoffs through the end zone, setting good holds on kicks and averaging almost 50 yards on three punts. Alex Ward (9) was solid on his snaps. Obviously Josh Karty’s (7) best pro day with five field goal and two over 50 yards.
Defensive Line
It was a dominant performance by the defensive line. Kobie Turner (42, 79%) led the group with consistent quarterback pressure and gritty run-stop work off the nose. The Rams have found the right play mix for Bobby Brown (33, 62%), 25-35 snaps as the 3T in run situations. He’s put together a string of good games. Braden Fiske (28, 53%) didn’t light up the stat sheet, but his get off and effort continuously puts pressure on opposing offensive linemen.
Tyler Davis (17, 32%) played his usual amount and Jonah Williams (8, 15%) was up a few reps. They combined for three tackles with one for a loss. The defensive line rotation has settled in and is proving to be a success. I really like this particular group of five going forward.
Edge
Well-deserved accolades are being heaped onto Jared Verse (45, 85%) as he continues to be a handful for opposing blockers. But he’s not alone. Byron Young (43, 81%) is on a path to exceed all of his strong rookie season numbers. The Rams are continuing to use Verse, Young and Michael Hoecht (35, 66%) on the field together, with Hoecht playing a hybrid edge/inside linebacker/standup defensive lineman role. Brennan Jackson (3, 6%) got a little taste.
Off-ball linebacker
Big increase in snaps for Omar Speights (39, 74%) and he answered by leading the team with eight tackles. It will be interesting to watch his progress. Although Christian Rozeboom (33, 62%) had his lowest rep count of the season, he stacked another strong performance, particularly in defending the pass. Overall, there are still too many short passes that go for good gains, but that’s as much on the whole secondary as one or both are often subbed out in passing situations.
Safety
There’s a Jekyll and Hyde persona to the Rams safety unit, they are often solid, but when things go bad, it’s very bad. A lot of it is their lack of a true free safety. They need a quick reacting, ground coverer. After a rough start, Kam Kinchens (39, 74%) has settled in for the past two games and sees time as the single-high. He’s learning on the job that there’s a huge difference between college and pro’s.
Quentin Lake (53, 100%) and Kam Curl (33, 62%) are two of the Rams top tacklers, similar players, willing to mix it up and better in underneath coverage. The snap count for Jaylen McCollough (13, 25%) was way down from the Seattle game, but more in line with the amount he received earlier in the year..
Cornerback
Less of a rotation versus the Dolphins. Aside from the game-opening drive, Cobie Durant (53, 100%) and Darious Williams (53, 100%) played well. The Rams have made the right decision to keep these two as the outside starters. At this point in his career, Ahkello Witherspoon (13, 25%) is best suited for backup and nickel roles. Was Josh Wallace nicked up? He did leave the Seattle Seahawks game last week, but in the previous three games had averaged 45 reps. It must have been matchup-based, because he had full night of special teams work.
Active, but did not play
QB Jimmy Garappolo, CB Charles Woods
Inactives
QB Stetson Bennett, RB Cody Schrader, C Dylan McMahon, T Rob Havenstein, DT Neville Gallimore, DT Desjuan Johnson
“…it takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place.”
No, the Rams aren’t traipsing with Alice in Wonderland, but with the parity of the NFC and particularly the Western Division, 4-5 isn’t nearly as bad as it sounds. Even after losing a another game they should have won, L.A. is only down one game in the loss column for the division top spot and two games out of a Wild Card berth.
At this point last season, the Rams were 3-6, in the throes of a three-game losing streak, and left for dead. The 2023 group was able to turn things around with a 7-1 finish and although that seems unlikely for this year’s squad, they are not quite ready for last rites. If the Rams have proved anything this season, it’s that they can play close with anyone, it doesn’t matter whether the opponent is considered superior or inferior.
Over these final eight games, L.A. has some tough games and more importantly, three intra-divisional tilts. Because of the situation, all are critical, but that trio of games in Weeks 15 (49ers), 17 (Cardinals), and 18 (Seahawks) are the “must win’s.”
Before the season, the narrative was that the offense would have to carry a young, under-capitalized, and inexperienced defense. That has not proven out. Although still having growing pains, it’s been the defense that has carried the flag, while the big money offense has struggled to pull its weight. It’s past time for Stafford, Kupp, Nacua et al to grab the heavy end of the box.
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