The Houston Texans made an impressive turnaround last season, going from one of the worst teams in the league to winning a playoff game. They’ll look to take another step forward this year, and the team’s offense should be elite.
It’s difficult to bet on any of their receivers because quarterback CJ Stroud has a knack for spreading the wealth. The props I’m zeroing in on for Houston involve Stroud and running back Joe Mixon. Let’s take a closer look at how each player will be utilized, and how you can profit this year.
Here are the NFL odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
CJ Stroud Over 4175.5 Passing Yards (-112)
CJ Stroud is one of the best young quarterbacks in football, and he set the league on fire in his rookie season. Stroud is a surgical passer who is at his best staying in the pocket, reading the defense, and throwing precision strikes to his receivers where they can get the ball in space and do damage. Stroud is also a master of placing his passes perfectly between multiple layers of defenders. This opens up opportunities for intermediate to deep throws, both down the middle of the field and towards the sidelines.
The Texans are going to turn Stroud loose this year between the 20’s. This will allow him to record video game numbers in terms of passing yardage as he’ll move the Texans up and down the field with ease.
The Texans made a splash at running back this off-season, bringing in veteran halfback Joe Mixon from the Cincinnati Bengals. Mixon is a talented runner and he will certainly be utilized, which will get into in a bit. However, Mixon likely won’t be used as a bellcow back who gets 20 to 30 carries per game.
Stroud’s role will be to move the team efficiently up and down the field while protecting the football. What is the Texans get into the red zone, that’s where Mixon will come into the picture. Stroud should have plenty of opportunities to rack up passing yards.
CJ Stroud Under 27.5 Passing Touchdowns (-112)
It is going to be tough for Stroud to reach the over for his passing touchdown total because the team will utilize Mixon heavily in the red zone. When the Texans are close to the promised land, they will turn to the running game in order to reduce the risk of any ill-timed turnovers that could hurt Houston’s momentum and give their opponent a boost.
Stroud will certainly do his part to push the team towards the end zone, but when they are close, the running game should take over. Stroud will certainly have a few touchdowns from within the red zone and he’ll get his fair share of throwing bombs from outside of 20 yards.
However, 28 touchdowns is a tough ask for a team that will disproportionately run the ball in the red zone.
Joe Mixon Under 825.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
While Mixon will be utilized heavily in the red zone, he might not get enough carries in the open field to reach the over for rushing yards. This is a fairly reasonable total, but there just might not be enough volume to get there.
Mixon should probably find himself with somewhere around 200 carries at the end of the season. He isn’t the most durable player, and one of the Texans’ chief priorities will be making sure he’s available for the postseason. With Stroud under center, the Texans have reached a point where they need to be doing everything in their power to position themselves for a deep postseason run. Simply making the playoffs is not enough anymore.
The Texans must have their eyes set on a bigger prize, and Mixon will be instrumental in getting them there. He’ll likely see his usage increase in the playoffs, but during the regular season, expect the Texans to exercise a fair amount of restraint in how Mixon is utilized to practice load management. If they keep him at 200 carries, even an average of 4 yards per carry won’t quite get him to this total.
Damien Pierce is a capable running back, and we can expect him to roughly split regular-season rushing duties with Mixon.
Let’s assume that Mixon receives an average of 15 carries pregame and plays in 13 games due to being banged up in a couple of others and taking a couple of weeks off to preserve his health. That pits him at 195 carries, and if he averages 4.2 yards per carry, he’ll end up just shy of this total. All of these estimates are fairly conservative, and Mixon just needs to exceed one of them to reach the over with room to spare.
This might be close, but the total is low enough that I’m willing to bite on the over.
Joe Mixon Over 6.5 Rushing Touchdowns (-124)
Because Mixon is going to be utilized heavily in the red zone, he should be able to reach the over for his touchdown prop with ease, despite possibly struggling to reach the total for his rushing yards.
The former Bengals star should find himself with plenty of opportunities to punch it into the end zone from within 10 yards, and he is good enough to take advantage of these opportunities.
The theme of the season for the Texans will likely be Mixon and Stroud playing opposite yet complementary roles. Stroud is going to be the guy who will lead the team down the field, racking up big numbers in terms of total passing yards. However, once the team gets into the red zone, it will become much more balanced and Mixon may even shoulder the bulk of the work in this area of the field.
