Auburn versus Alabama is one of the most iconic rivalries in sports, and the unexpected storylines heading into the 89th edition of the Iron Bowl make the game even more intriguing. Alabama was projected to win big against Oklahoma en route to a College Football Playoff berth. Instead, the Crimson Tide’s offense was lifeless in a 24-3 upset loss.
With Alabama unlikely to make the playoff, Auburn has all the momentum after upsetting Texas A&M. The Tigers haven’t won the Iron Bowl since 2019, and coach Hugh Freeze’s squad needs one more victory to earn bowl eligibility. Both teams have been difficult to predict this season. Here are my expert Auburn vs Alabama predictions and best bets for the Iron Bowl.
Auburn vs. Alabama predictions and best bets
- Auburn +11.5: -110 at BetMGM
- Under 52: -110 at bet365
*Note: Odds are based on the best value our experts find as of publication; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
According to TeamRankings, Auburn is a respectable 6-5 against the spread (ATS) with covers in three of the last four games. The Tigers are also 3-1 ATS as an underdog. Alabama’s ATS record is identical to Auburn’s and the Tide are 5-5 as a favorite.
Betting the under is a combined 5-9 when Auburn and Alabama face SEC teams. It’s been bad news for Alabama when QB Jalen Milroe isn’t running the ball effectively. In the Crimson Tide’s three losses, Milroe had just 28 total rushing yards and one touchdown.
Milroe appeared to be playing through pain in last week’s loss and even left the game for a play. Auburn’s run defense has been solid, so containing Milroe won’t be as difficult if he’s not 100 percent.
The Iron Bowl is always a marquee matchup, but the Crimson Tide could understandably feel deflated after suffering a third loss. Alabama is now unlikely to make the CFP, and Auburn has a great shot at exacting revenge after the heartbreaking 4th-and-31 play from last season.
As if it wasn’t bad enough for the Tide, ESPN’s Pete Thamel reports star LB Deontae Lawson suffered a season-ending injury against the Sooners. Lawson’s 76 total tackles are the ninth-most in the SEC.
Auburn, which won back-to-back games for the first time last week, needs one more victory to make a bowl game. The Tigers haven’t won in Tuscaloosa in over 10 years, but I expect Auburn to stay within the 11.5-point spread.
Why Alabama could win as the favorite
Best odds: -420 at FanDuel
Alabama has dominated when the Iron Bowl comes to Bryant-Denny Stadium. The Crimson Tide has beaten Auburn in six straight home games by an average of 27 points.
The Tigers’ run defense may be above average, but stopping mobile QBs hasn’t come easy. QBs like Arkansas’ Taylen Green, Oklahoma’s Michael Hawkins Jr. and Texas A&Ms Marcel Reed combined for 215 rushing yards when they faced Auburn.
While Milroe should find room to run, relying too much on Jalen is clearly a flawed strategy. When Milroe picked up seven yards on the ground against Oklahoma, the Tide were held out of the end zone and scored one measly field goal.
Running backs Jam Miller and Justice Haynes have been inconsistent, so it could be up to Alabama’s pass catchers if Milroe has another bad day on the ground. The receiving group lacks depth beyond Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard: They are the only Tide WRs to post 200+ yards or score at least two touchdowns.
Bernard’s growth has been impressive and he’s had 60 yards or more in six of the last seven games. Williams’ yardage has dropped off from earlier in the year, but he’s accounted for half of the Crimson Tide’s 16 receiving touchdowns.
Why Auburn could win as the underdog
Best odds: +350 at Fanatics
Auburn hasn’t beaten Alabama in Tuscaloosa since 2010. Coincidentally, the 2010 season was the last time the Tide lost three games. History has a funny way of repeating itself, but the Tigers don’t need to lean on a random trend to beat Alabama.
The Tide offense was hard to watch when Milroe was forced to air it out against the Sooners. Milroe completed 42% of his passes for 164 yards and three interceptions, one of which was a pick-six.
If Milroe has lingering injuries that limit his rushing abilities, the Tigers will have an even greater opportunity to win outright.
Alabama’s run defense has been suspect, allowing 143 yards per game. Last week was particularly bad when Oklahoma gained 260 yards and two touchdowns.
Auburn RB Jarquez Hunter has come on strong in recent weeks, tallying 560 yards and five touchdowns in the previous four games. Hunter has the second-most rushing yards in the SEC and could feast in the Iron Bowl. Last season, Jarquez picked up 93 yards while averaging more than six yards per carry against Alabama.
Auburn QB Payton Thorne could also break off big plays with his legs after Sooners QB Jackson Arnold ran for 131 yards versus the Tide. Thorne should have plenty of confidence after throwing for 301 yards and two touchdowns against Texas A&M. In two seasons with Auburn, it was only the second time Thorne surpassed 300 yards versus a power-conference opponent.
