At this time of Seattle Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf’s MCL sprain in Week 7, he was on pace for a career year in the team’s revamped offense. He was the third-leading receiver in the NFL through seven weeks of the season.
Metcalf surging was forecastable based on the vertical offense Ryan Grubb brought to the team from his time at Washington. The scheme has struggled mightily in the run game — mostly due to the offensive line — but has been atop the league this season in passing production because of those deficiencies on the ground. Seattle’s star wide receiver has benefited.
Despite being out of the Seahawks’ last two games, Metcalf has 35 catches for 568 yards and three touchdowns. He and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are tied for 12th in the league in receiving yards even though the latter has played in all nine of Seattle’s games.
Metcalf’s receiving production shakes out to 81.1 receiving yards per game on an average of five catches. He was doing that on just a 21.9 percent target share in an offense that is loaded with receiving talent. That target share is lower than each of the receivers currently in the top-5 in receiving yards by at least two percent.
Grubb and quarterback Geno Smith weren’t funneling targets to Metcalf. He was just the team’s best pass-catcher, by far.
When he returns, most likely after the bye week, there’s still a chance Metcalf could surpass his career-high of 1,303 receiving yards set in 2020. However, he’ll have to accumulate even more yards through the air than he had before his injury.
If Metcalf continued at his exact per-game receiving yard and reception averages, he would finish with 75 catches for 1,216 yards — neither of which would be career highs for the sixth-year former second-round pick.
To reach his exact 2020 receiving totals, Metcalf would need to average about 91.9 receiving yards per game on six catches. It would be even harder for him to surpass those totals, as he would need nearly 98 yards per game to reach 1,350 receiving yards.
It’s possible, especially based on how Metcalf was playing before his injury. He had a three-game stretch from Weeks 2–4 with more than 100 receiving yards and had 99 in Week 7. Metcalf has had double-digit targets in three games this season.
Seattle (4-5) has more pressing items on their agenda than ensuring Metcalf reaches a milestone, but it should be a plausible mark within the confines of the offense. The Seahawks’ offense scored at least 20 points every game Metcalf played this season and had their worst output of the season (10 points) in their first game with him on the sideline.
Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald said they were “optimistic” Metcalf will return for their Week 11 game against the San Francisco 49ers following the bye week. Metcalf had three catches for 48 yards in Seattle’s first bout with the Niners in Week 6.
