No one can deny that Caleb Williams has played much better for the Chicago Bears since his struggles to open the 2024 NFL season.
While some of this has to do with how well he has played, some of this has to do with the defenses that he has played.
He started his career off against the Tennessee Titans and Houston Texans. The Titans rank first in passing success rate allowed, and eighth in expected points allowed through the air. The Texans rank ninth and 11th in those two statistics respectively.
In Week 3, they faced the Indianapolis Colts, who ranked 24th in success rate and 25th in expected points allowed, which is what got Williams his confidence going. After that, Williams saw the Los Angeles Rams, who are 31st in success rate, 29th in EPA, and then the Carolina Panthers, who are 30th in success rate and 31st in EPA allowed. They are competing for who can be the worst in the NFL against the pass, making the Colts look good.
Williams, naturally, had his best two games over the last two weeks. The combination of Williams playing better and also playing bad defenses will continue this week with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Jaguars come into this game ranked 23rd in success rate allowed, but 32nd in expected points allowed. They can have some down-to-down consistency, but when they do get beat, which is still often, they give up big plays. This should set up well for the Bears.
To be fair, the Jaguars just got Darnell Savage back and they have been without Tyson Campbell for the past couple of weeks. Still, Campbell will miss the Bears game, and even with Savage, the Jaguars allowed 359 yards and three touchdowns to Joe Flacco. There will be opportunities for Williams to have similar success.
