MIAMI – Miami Heat coach Erik Spoelstra wouldn’t go so far as to name his expected starting lineup, but he did provide a pretty strong hint.
“I’m not going to give you headlines about starting lineup or rotation,” Spoelstra said at Monday’s media day, “But I am intentional about seeing what Terry [Rozier], Tyler [Herro], Bam [Adebayo], Jimmy [Butler] looks like.
“We have to see how that group can complement each other and lift this whole group up.”
Spoelstra basically named four of the five Heat starters, but the final spot will be open to competition.
Because Adebayo and Butler are obvious starters, the best way to see those four together is to start Rozier and Herro as well. It’s safe to assume the Spoelstra envisions those four taking starting positions on opening night. (It’s worth noting that players at media day didn’t push back against the notion.)
Rozier, after arriving in a mid-season trade from the Charlotte Hornets, did not log much time next to the Heat’s cornerstone players.
Those four played 118 minutes over 10 games together last season. The Heat lost those minutes by a total of two points. To Spoelstra’s point, it’s way too small of a sample size to make any conclusions.
Those four should, at least in theory, be enough to drag Miami’s offense out of the bottom third of the league and score at at least a league-average rate.
“We need to innovate,” Spoelstra said. “We have offensive talent everywhere you look. It should be a group that brings out a higher level.”
Rozier averaged 20 points per game in nearly five seasons in Charlotte. Herro, a former Sixth Man of the Year winner, has averaged 20.5 points over his last three seasons. Adebayo is a 20, 10 and 4 guy. Butler is a 21, 6 and 6 guy.
While stacking point-per-game averages isn’t how running a good offense works, the talent is clearly there. It’s about finding a way to maximize it and make it something greater than the sum of its parts.
The first thing I thought about after Spoelstra’s comments was last season’s Oklahoma City Thunder, who finished third in ORTG.
That team featured five players who could shoot, dribble and pass (to varying degrees). OKC’s offense was terrifying because anyone could go to work on a mismatch at any time. No team averaged more drives or points on more drives per game than the Thunder.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would drive, create an advantage, and kick out to Jalen Williams, who would attack a rotating defense. If that didn’t work, Williams could kick out to Josh Giddey or Lu Dort for another drive or find Chet Holmgren for an open corner 3. The Thunder used their playmaking and decision-making to maximize the whole of the roster.
The Heat could do the same. They ranked 16th in the league in drives per game and second in pass rate last season. Swapping out post-ups and mid-range shots for more drives will increase Miami’s overall efficiency.
Rozier, Herro, Butler and Adebayo are capable of initiating offense. Rozier’s rim pressure added a much-needed element to Miami’s offense last season. Butler and Adebayo have the size and athleticism to apply pressure. Herro, after adding 12 pounds of muscle, should improve in that regard.
But who should be the fifth starter?
If Spoelstra wants to implement a pace-and-space offense, the leading candidates are Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic. Both are good passers who can make plays with the ball.
Jovic, at 6-foot-10, is bigger and a better outside shooter. Jaquez is a more consistent scorer with an inside-out post game. Both need to improve as one-on-one defenders.
That question will likely be answered in training camp, which starts Tuesday in the Bahamas.
There’s a lot of work to be done. But if Butler is “here to hoop” and Herro and Rozier are willing to embrace whatever role is asked of them – as they all said at media day – then Spoelstra will have a chance to innovate.
It can’t be understated how much a slog of a season and an early playoff exit can motivate a team. The Heat were humbled last year. It’s time for change.
As Duncan Robinson said, "Everybody is tired of being in the bottom third in offense."
