Does Deebo Samuel Still Have Enough Juice to Be Difference-Maker for Steelers?

Every draft cycle, there’s always at least one wide receiver prospect who garners comparisons to Deebo Samuel. However, the league hasn’t quite figured out an identical clone for the former San Francisco 49ers second-round pick. The good news, for the Pittsburgh Steelers, is that the prototype is now available.

The writing for an eventual split has been on the wall for roughly a year now, with the Niners flirting with the idea of moving him dating back to last year’s NFL Draft. Following his least productive full season in 2024, Samuel has now made it clear that he’s ready for a change of scenery, as well. 

The Steelers still have a significant need for more firepower offensively, particularly at the wide receiver position. It’s reasonable to assume that they will at least make an inquiry, but does a potential marriage between the two parties actually make sense? 

Samuel is entering the final year of a lucrative three-year contract extension that he signed prior to the 2022 campaign and is owed $17.5 million in cash for this upcoming season. Because none of that money is guaranteed, there is a chance that he could get released outright, but San Francisco would obviously prefer to get something for his services before it comes to that, even if it’s a day three selection of some sort.

There’s no denying that Samuel has one of the most unique skillsets that we’ve seen enter the NFL in the past decade. Because of his unique build at every bit of 215 pounds and contact balance as a ball carrier, the 49ers have found a myriad of ways to get the football into his hands. They’ll align him both in the slot and out of the backfield with most of usage coming on screens, option routes and runaways. He’s always been one of the better plays at his position at creating yards after the catch, whether it’s his ability to quickly transition to becoming a runner, powering through arm tackles or simply fighting for excess yards by falling forward upon contact.

San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan has always made him a priority within their scheme by getting him matched up on linebackers as much as possible. He processes the leverage of second-level defenders well and some of his best moments last season came in these situations. Samuel has always knack for finding the soft spots in zone coverage, throttling down in space and working back to the quarterback. He’s been particularly dangerous on in-breakers because he understands timing and space, specializing in dig routes over the middle. So much of what the Niners have done offensively over the past five years has revolved around finding different ways to get him the ball in space.

His uniqueness is part of what has made him, but he’s not without his flaws as a player. Throughout his career, Samuel has never developed into anything more than a one-note route runner and his ability as a true separator pales in comparison to some of the more established commodities around the league. While in the Bay Area, they’ve hidden some of his worst qualities as a player. An example of this is how often he’s operating out of the slot, off the line of scrimmage, in bunch formations or in tight splits to alleviate the chance of press coverage. His hands are inconsistent, evidenced by his 10.2% drop rate over the course of his career. Simply put, Samuel is a niche player for better or worse. 

The film in 2024 is worrisome on a few different levels beyond the lack of overall production. He didn’t seem to have the same juice from an acceleration standpoint and lacked the top end gear that we were used to seeing in the open field. At his peak, you would see him erase tackling angles from secondary players and create explosive plays out of thin air but that simply wasn’t the case this past season. Even the crossing routes, where he’s traditionally been at his best versus man coverage, were less effective. He suffered a low grade calf strain early in the first month of the season and never looked like the dangerous playmaker the Niners needed with Brandon Aiyuk on injured reserve. Without their top option, you would think that an offensive guru would filter even more looks in Samuel’s way but it was actually other players such Jauan Jennings who stepped up into larger roles. 

Over 37% of his catches in 2024 came on screen passes, averaging over seven yards a pop on those plays but aside from that, there wasn’t much to grab on to from a performance standpoint. The option routes underneath weren’t quite as fruitful due to a few reasons. There were times that Samuel wasn’t getting open and others where Brock Purdy wasn’t delivering accurate passes. The data backs this up as well. According to SIS, 26% of his targets were deemed uncatchable when you exclude screens behind the line of scrimmage. That’s particularly concerned because of his low average depth of target. We’ve already talked about his hands being inconsistent but for a YAC threat, ball placement becomes even more crucial. The QB-WR connection felt iffy, to say the least, during certain stretches. 

It may seem unconventional but the best course of action if the Steelers were to pursue Samuel might be to allow him to play out the season before approaching him with a new deal. The last time he was in a contract year situation was 2021. Coincidentally, he amassed 1,770 yards from scrimmage and was the key cog behind a team went to the NFC Championship game. At 29-years old, is he likely to reach that apex again following years of wear and tear? No. But it’s not completely preposterous to think that he could have a bounce-back fall that leads to a one final payday. Trading and subsequently extending him on arrival would not be the wisest course of action based on his career trajectory.

The cost to acquire the former All-Pro shouldn’t be much and the Niners might even be willing to eat some of his salary in the process. For a team desperate for offensive firepower, this isn’t some significant risk. The bigger concern is whether he can regain some of his explosiveness and whether Arthur Smith is the type of creative mind to maximize his skill set. 

Given the number of pure slot receivers on the roster already, adding Samuel to the equation can’t be the only move that the team makes this offseason. They’d still need someone capable of playing outside. The veteran options available aren’t all that enticing but it shouldn’t be surprising if this is where the franchise lands early on this spring.