There are a lot of reasons why things are going sideways right now for the Edmonton Oilers. And it’s happening at a team level, in every game state, and at individual levels.
Despite doing a very good job at controlling the flow of play and getting a good proportion of the scoring chances at even-strength (even when the score is close), the Oilers are having trouble finishing chances and stopping pucks. Their special teams have also been terrible, costing them wins. They’re currently one of the worst teams in the league at generating chances on the powerplay, even with the same group and talent-level as last season. And while the penalty kill has been fine at limiting chances against, they can’t get enough saves from their goaltenders.
One player in particular who has struggled in the first ten games this season has been defenceman Darnell Nurse. With him on the ice at even-strength (5v5), the Oilers are posting a Corsi For percentage of 49.05 percent and an Expected Goals For percentage of 44.60 percent – some of the worst numbers on the team. Without him on the ice, these numbers improve significantly, with the team’s Corsi For percentage improving by 18 percent (up to a 59.8 Corsi For percentage) and the Expected Goals For percentage improving by 24 percent (58.52). When you combine his poor-on-ice shot-share numbers with the team’s very shaky goaltending, it’s no wonder that Nurse’s on-ice goal share of 33% (3 goals for, 6 goals against) is one of the worst on the team.
And it’s far below what any management group would expect from one of the highest-paid defencemen in the league.
What’s also been eye-opening is how much the Oilers forwards struggle to control the flow of play at even-strength when they have to share the ice with Nurse. When we compare every forward’s on-ice Corsi For percentage with Nurse and without Nurse, we see only two players being able to weather Nurse’s deficiencies: Zach Hyman and Connor McDavid (just barely).
The graph below sorts the forwards from those who have played the most even-strength minutes with Nurse to those who have played the fewest. The table shows each player’s time on ice with Nurse, their Corsi For percentage with Nurse and their Corsi For percentage without him.
What stands out here is that Nurse has typically been playing with third-line players like Adam Henrique, who he has played his most minutes, Connor Brown and Mattias Janmark. And because of Nurse and the minutes they have to play with him, these three forwards have seen their on-ice shot-share numbers take a hit and rank as some of the worst on the team. But when they’re away from Nurse, their numbers drastically improve, which in turn helps increase their odds of outscoring opponents as they’re spending more time with the puck and away from their own zone.
We do also see a few players who do okay with Nurse, such as Arvidsson and Podkolzin. Their on-ice numbers with Nurse take a hit, but they don’t drop below the break-even mark and remain respectable. This ability to survive the Nurse minutes could explain why both of them are getting more minutes with Draisaitl on the second line. The coaching staff needs to do everything possible to mitigate the risks associated with deploying Nurse and have to find as many internal solutions as possible. At least until management can address one of the biggest and most expensive problems on the team.
