JT Miller’s play has been slipping for a while now, and has a giant spotlight on it following Rick Tocchet’s decision to bench the All-Star forward for most of the third period during Sunday night’s loss to the Nashville Predators.
What’s being talked about less is that Miller’s poor play seems to have gotten more noticeable around the same time Brock Boeser went down with a head injury. Boeser has missed five games after exiting during the first period of the Canucks’ road win over the Los Angeles Kings back on November 7th.
As a result, we now have two relatively similar sample sizes of JT Miller with and without Brock Boeser. Note that the advanced stats in this article are all analyzing 5v5 play, unless specified otherwise.
Before we dive into each individual number, let’s summarize this in the simplest terms possible. Through the 91:46 of 5v5 ice time that JT Miller has spent away from Brock Boeser, the Canucks are giving up far more chances against and creating less chances for than they did during the 123:55 of 5v5 time JT Miller spent with Brock Boeser this season.
Now, the specifics.
Chances Against + High Danger Chances Against
| Miller with Boeser | CA/60: 49.87 | Total CA: 103 | HDCA/60: 8.72 | Total HDCA: 18 |
| Miller without Boeser | CA/60: 56.87 | Total CA: 87 | HDCA/60: 12.42 | Total HDCA: 19 |
Keeping in mind the sample sizes of the ice times mentioned above, it’s downright alarming that the Canucks have somehow given up one more high-danger chance against with Miller on the ice without Boeser than they did in the over 30 minutes of time Boeser and Miller spent together.
The rates obviously tell enough of the story, but that total number of high-danger chances against somehow being greater in so much less time really illustrates just how much Miller’s line has given up since losing Boeser.
And unfortunately, the Canucks’ chances for with Miller on the ice without Boeser has also cratered.
Chances For + High Danger Chances For
| Miller with Boeser | CF/60: 63.43 | Total CF: 131 | HDCF/60: 15.98 | Total HDCF: 33 |
| Miller without Boeser | CF/60: 54.26 | Total CF: 83 | HDCF/60: 9.15 | Total HDCF: 14 |
The picture is starting to become clear. Without Brock Boeser, JT Miller’s line has gotten to dangerous parts of the offensive zone far less, and their overall chance creation is down. And when a line’s chances for are down while the chances against are up, the result is rarely a positive one.
Speaking of results…
Goals For, Goals Against, and Expected Goals
Total Counts:
Rates:
It came as a surprise to me that Miller and Boeser had been on the ice together for just two goals against all season. They’ve taken on the opposition’s best all season long, and with the early season struggles of Elias Pettersson, teams were certainly able to game plan against throwing everything they had at the duo to win games.
Now, part of this is how good Kevin Lankinen was to start the season, but it’s also undeniable that the expected goals for (xGF) and expected goals against numbers both look better when Miller is on the ice with Boeser than when he hasn’t been.
While the hope is certainly that a third period benching and a blunt explanation from the head coach will light a fire under Miller and hopefully turn his fortunes around, there’s no denying one simple fact in all of this.
Nobody is missing Brock Boeser more than JT Miller.
All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick.com.
Check out Harman Dayal and I’s conversation about this topic in the YouTube video below!
