Photo Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
Even though he feuded with Stephon Gilmore during the Indianapolis Colts game in 2022, Justin Jefferson said he was happy the Minnesota Vikings signed the two-time All-Pro corner. “We got big expectations,” said Jefferson in reaction to the signing. “We got expectations of going far. [Winning] the Super Bowl, that’s always the plan. That’s always going to be the plan.”
Winning a Super Bowl feels far-fetched after a tumultuous offseason. Khyree Jackson passed away in a car accident. J.J. McCarthy and Mekhi Blackmon suffered knee injuries, and Jordan Addison got a DUI. Most sportsbooks set Minnesota’s win total at 6.5, and the Vikings have a 14% chance of making the playoffs, per ESPN’s analytics. That’s their lowest preseason playoff odds in 10 years.
Still, Kevin O’Connell says he has found a way to be hopeful throughout organized team activities and camp.
“There’s no question that it has been eventful,” he acknowledged before Minnesota’s final preseason game. “In many cases, some tough circumstances.
“My No. 1 role, as far as how I see my role for this organization, is to be a constant rock of steadiness and being the same guy every day. Anybody can do that when things are good and things are easy or you’re not experiencing adversity.”
Kwesi Adofo-Mensah said he noticed O’Connell’s leadership qualities immediately when he interviewed him for the head coaching position.
“It’s always just trying to figure out, first and foremost, how do we make sure people matter? And then also, Okay, how do I figure out how to get better and help this organization?” said Adofo-Mensah. “It’s never looking to point blame, never once. It’s just not how he’s wired. It’s just. How do we go forward? How do we be calm and make rational decisions?”
“I believe leadership is showing those things that you say you’re about authentically and real,” said O’Connell. “That doesn’t mean you don’t go through the same things right alongside your players and coaches. But you’ve got to do it in a way that provides a path, always moving forward and constantly chasing what we’re trying to chase around here.”
The Vikings are pursuing that elusive Super Bowl every year. Ownership has greenlighted many market-altering contracts, including a $140 million extension for Justin Jefferson and $68.5 million for T.J. Hockenson. They built a state-of-the-art facility in Eagan and fostered continuity in a league with constant turnover. However, they expect to remain competitive every year because of their commitment to the franchise.
That became more difficult this year even before the adversity the Vikings faced over the summer. Kirk Cousins left in free agency, and Minnesota signed Sam Darnold as a bridge quarterback.
Mike Sando interviews 50 coaches and executives to create an annual “quarterback tiers” piece for the Athletic. Sando divides the quarterbacks into four tiers. The executives placed Kirk Cousins in Tier 2, behind Jalen Hurts and Brock Purdy, but ahead of Jordan Love and Tua Tagovailoa. However, Darnold was their second-lowest-rated quarterback, ahead of Jacoby Brissett.
Darnold landed in Tier 4, the second-lowest tier. However, 12 voters put him in Tier 3 — the same level where the voters had Cousins until O’Connell coached him two years ago. “Sometimes I think he’s a three in the right situation,” one executive told Sando. “It would not surprise me if he has a decent year with Kevin (O’Connell). I’m teetering between three and five. I’ll go out on a limb and say he’s a three this year.”
The executives and coaches Sando interviewed gave Darnold as many Tier 3 votes as they did Tier 5, so he’s not a consensus bottom-of-the-league quarterback. Before McCarthy injured his meniscus, one coach believed Darnold could become a Tier 2 quarterback with the talent around him and hold off the first-round quarterback.
“I don’t want to be one of those guys who holds on to his draft grade, but I would not be surprised if he holds off J.J. McCarthy for a while,” the head coach said before McCarthy’s injury. “(Darnold) has the ability to play to a two.”
Darnold will have to play well enough to run O’Connell’s system and distribute the ball to Jefferson and the rest of his weapons for the Vikings to win. He doesn’t need to drive winning, given that Jefferson is a game-breaking player and Brian Flores will be running an improved defense. Minnesota’s defense should be better next year. They added Jonathan Greenard, Blake Cashman, and Andrew Van Ginkel in free agency, Dallas Turner in the draft, and Gilmore once camp started.
No team tries to lose entering the season. Even if the Vikings start slowly, it’s difficult to justify tanking with Jefferson on the roster, even if it would be a rare opportunity to grab a potential franchise quarterback.
However, even if they try to win this year, the NFC North has improved. Jordan Love led the Green Bay Packers to the playoffs last year. The Detroit Lions had a 17-point lead at halftime of the NFC Championship game. And the Chicago Bears landed Caleb Williams with the first-overall pick. They’ll have to survive a challenging early-season schedule and prove they can win in the division to make the playoffs.
Still, there’s reason for the Vikings to be hopeful. They’ve improved their defense, and Darnold should be good enough to run O’Connell’s system. They have Jefferson and wouldn’t have added Gilmore if they didn’t think they could win. O’Connell and team have big expectations, even though many people outside the building are counting them out this year.
