The Dallas Cowboys executed a trade this offseason with the Pittsburgh Steelers to acquire George Pickens, a much-needed wide receiver to complement All-Pro CeeDee Lamb.
Not only does Pickens' play style contrast nicely with Lamb's to give quarterback Dak Prescott variety in the offense, but Pickens' contract situation was also a fit...
For now.
The former second-round pick in 2022 is entering the fourth and final year of his cheap rookie contract. He is technically able to sign an extension now, but both parties - that being Pickens and the Cowboys - seem content with letting this season unfold before putting pen to paper on a new deal.
That means there is a lot riding on this season that can dictate Pickens' future with "America's Team".
Next offseason, Dallas will then have a decision to make on Pickens' free agency status if he is not extended before then. Multiple factors are in play here.
As was the case in Pittsburgh, Pickens' acts of temperamental behavior were a concern worth giving up, regardless of how well he played on the field. Early indications show that Pickens has acted fine with the Cowboys so far, and expected to continue throughout this season.
Frankly, he needs to be on the straight and narrow in order to paint the most deserving picture of himself.
This is just one of the variables that impact Pickens earning his next contract. His performance on the field is the another indication of what type of contract he may receive.
In his first three seasons Pickens has been solid, having not hauled in less than 800 yards in a season and averaging four touchdowns a year. He shined in 2023 with an impressive 1,140 yards and a league-leading 18.1 yards per reception mark. Last year he fell 240 yards short of that total, but he also played in three less games.
His numbers at his best could still see a dip with Lamb receiving the majority of targets, but that shouldn't diminish Pickens' importance in the offense nor his contract value if he fills his role effectively.
Spotrac projects Pickens' next contract to be in the neighborhood of the richest among all "No. 2" receivers in the NFL. His market value is currently set at $25.3 million average annual salary. That number would put him as the 12th highest-paid receiver in the NFL currently.
This can be done ... with the Cincinnati Bengals, Miami Dolphins and Philadelphia Eagles being teams with two receivers on the roster priced at or above $25 million each per season.
A better way to predict Pickens' next contract may be to compare him to others in a similar position, statistically and situationally.
Calvin Ridley signed with the Tennessee Titans in free agency for four years, $92 million ($23 million APY) but was also coming off a year-long suspension after his lone 1,000-yard season.
Michael Pittman's three-year, $70 million deal ($23.3 million APY) with the Indianapolis Colts is another deal that Pickens' could model. He had 227 receptions, 2,510 yards and 11 touchdowns in his first three seasons, which is closely comparable to Pickens' 174 receptions, 2,841 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Assuming Pickens thrives in his role in the Cowboys' offense, owner Jerry Jones could be encouraged to sign Pickens to a four-year deal as a best-case scenario to lock him in long-term with his "Goodfellas" buddy CeeDee.
In this case, he'll need to become the Cowboys' best No. 2 receiver since Amari Cooper in 2021, meaning playing in the proximity of 850 yards and 6 touchdowns on the season - which is close to Pickens' career averages.
If he surpasses 1,000 alongside Lamb? He could make a serious case to reach $24 million per season. This, of course, would also have to come in addition to avoiding injury and sharpening up those attitude gripes.
SBNation's Blogging the Boys sets this contract prediction at a four-year, $96 million figure ($24 mil APY) with nearly $54 million guaranteed.
So we’re inching toward $100 million year.
It's worth noting, Jones also has major contract extensions due for impact pieces Micah Parsons, DaRon Bland, Tyler Smith, and Brandon Aubrey coming up.
It's already shaping out to be a busy year in the accounting department next offseason.
Cowboys Nation has their long-awaited dynamic duo on the outside, but if they enjoy a productive season together it will cost a pretty penny to keep it that way.
