BREAKING: Why Hasn't Brian Gutekunst Had More Success With First-Round Picks?

   

Brian Gutekunst has made nine first-round selections during his seven drafts as the Green Bay Packers’ general manager.

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In 2018, Gutekunst traded up from pick 27 to pick 18 to draft Jaire Alexander. As a rookie, Alexander started 11 games, recorded 11 pass breakups, and had an interception. He set a career-high in interceptions in 2022 and remains a cornerstone of Green Bay’s defense.

The Packers selected Rashan Gary with the 12th-overall pick in 2019. He became a key player in 2021 and signed a four-year extension in October 2023. After a slow start in 2024, Gary recorded 10 pressures in the last three games, compared to nine pressures in the first six weeks.

Green Bay took Darnell Savage with the 21st pick in that same draft. Additionally, they missed an opportunity to give him jersey No. 21. Savage had his best year in 2020, allowing one touchdown and recording four interceptions. However, he failed to justify the first-round investment and left the team after a poor performance in the 2023 divisional round against the San Francisco 49ers.

Packers fans were upset when Gutekunst traded up for Jordan Love in the 2020 draft. Love sat for three seasons before replacing Aaron Rodgers last year, when he threw 32 touchdowns as a rookie and led Green Bay to the playoffs. Green Bay became the first seventh seed to win a playoff game and nearly upset the top-seeded San Francisco 49ers in the divisional round. Love has struggled with accuracy and decision-making this year but holds a 5-3 record as a starter.

Gutekunst selected Eric Stokes with the 29th pick in the 2021 draft. Stokes started 14 games as a rookie and allowed catches on only 51% of the passes quarterbacks threw his way. A season-ending ankle injury in 2022 derailed his progress, and he appeared in only three games last year. The Packers declined his fifth-year option this year and benched him by Week 6.

Green Bay got an extra first-round pick when they traded Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders in the 2022 offseason. They used it to draft Quay Walker, who has played significantly with the team and now wears the green dot in Jeff Hafley’s defense. However, Walker has yet to justify Green Bay’s investment. Next year will be the final year of his rookie deal, and it will be a make-or-break season for him.

Gutekunst drafted Devonte Wyatt with Green Bay’s first-round pick in 2022. He didn’t start as a rookie but recorded 5.5 sacks and 45 pressures in his second year. Wyatt has missed time this year due to an ankle injury and recorded 12 pressures through seven games. However, he has never earned a PFF run defense grade above 60.9.

The Packers acquired the 13th-overall pick from the New York Jets as part of the Aaron Rodgers trade. They used it to select Lukas Van Ness, who had five pressures in his debut against the Chicago Bears last year. However, he has only recorded seven pressures in 10 games as a sophomore. For comparison, Will McDonald, whom the Jets drafted two spots after Van Ness, had more sacks in 2024 than Van Ness had pressures.

Every Green Bay fan seemed to have a draft crush on Cooper DeJean, but Gutekunst took Jordan Morgan with the 25th pick in 2024. While DeJean thrives in Philadelphia, Morgan has played in only six games before the Packers placed him on IR with a shoulder injury.

Gutekunst’s draft process has flaws. Savage was a bust, and Stokes and Walker are heading in the same direction. Rashan Gary was a decent pick but isn’t on the level of elite pass rushers like J.J. Watt, Max Crosby, Nick Bosa, or Myles Garrett.

Green Bay is paying Gary $24 million per year, but his production does not match the front office’s investment. He had 10 sacks last year, with six coming in two games. In 2024, he has three zero-pressure games and is tied for 81st in pass rush win rate among all edges.

The Packers historically value athleticism in the draft. They picked Walker over Nakobe Dean, even though Dean was the better player then, and that still is true today. Dean has better run defense, coverage, and overall defensive grades. Among 104 off-ball linebackers with at least 100 snaps, Walker ranks 94th in defensive grade, while Dean is 44th.

It’s hard for any fan to disagree with the Jordan Love pick, but Green Bay’s overall process was flawed. The Packers were one game away from the Super Bowl in 2019 and had needs at linebacker and receiver in the 2020 offseason.

While it’s not guaranteed that addressing those positions would have immediately improved the team in 2020, Gutekunst neglected two areas of need and drafted a player who couldn’t help an aging Aaron Rodgers make a second run at the Lombardi with the Green and Gold.

Gutekunst has drafted first-round players with positional value in six of his seven drafts, but that didn’t happen this year. The Packers passed on a corner to take Morgan. With Alexander injured, they paid the price against the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions with no other reliable corners. Alexander missed both games, and Minnesota and Detroit’s pass-catchers repeatedly burned Stokes and Keisean Nixon.

Gutekunst has compensated for questionable first-round picks with solid Day 2 and Day 3 selections. However, the Packers need to reevaluate their draft value and process. They take pride in the draft as the organization’s lifeblood. To maintain sustained success, they need to get it right on all three days.