Bills Have Clear Reason For Being Made Surprising AFC Favorites

The Buffalo Bills once again fell to the Kansas City Chiefs, deep in the playoffs, during which there was a contentious third down spot that got Bills fans really going.

This story seems familiar – brutally so for Bills fans. However, even as the postseason tally goes to 0-4 against the Kansas City Chiefs, the bookmakers still do not believe that the Chiefs will get the best of the Bills.

Or indeed, they have more faith in Buffalo, as they have made them favorites to win the AFC and reach Super Bowl LX.

And Schad is correct. The Bills and the Ravens currently stand as AFC co-favorites at +330, per DraftKings sportsbook. The Chiefs then land at +425 before the odds take a nosedive with the Bengals at #4 at a surprisingly high +1100.

This means, in terms of implied probability, the leading US bookmaker is giving Buffalo and Baltimore just over a 23% chance of winning the conference, followed by Kansas City at 19% and Cincinnati at only a smidge over 8%.

Why Is Buffalo Favored Over Kansas City To Win The AFC

In a head-to-head, it is still quite possible that DraftKings and other Vegas bookies will have the Chiefs favored. However, the reason the Bills are given a higher chance of reaching the AFC championship comes down to their divisional odds.

The Chiefs are a small favorite to win the AFC West, currently at -120, despite coming off of nine straight division titles. That equates to a probability of around 55%.

Much of that is due to the new renewed strength of the division. Both the Chargers and the Broncos are on the up with talented young quarterbacks, and the Raiders figure to be far more dangerous in 2025 after hiring Super Bowl winner, Pete Carroll, and trading for veteran QB, Geno Smith.

Bills’ Divisional Ease Gives Them An Edge In Championship Odds

The Bills, on the other hand, are widely favored to win the AFC East by DraftKings, now at -300, which is 20 percentage points higher than the Chiefs at 75%, with sharp customers and line movers not giving much credence to the chances of the New England Patriots, the New York Jets or Miami Dolphins.

As the Bills’ odds to win the division, and thus make the playoffs and win the #1 seed, are much higher than the Chiefs, they are – and some would say reasonably so, favored over KC to make it to their first Super Bowl in over 30 years. Even if on a straight head-to-head, Josh Allen and Sean McDermott would quite possibly end up underdogs to 3 x world champions, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid.

Not all books agree with this sentiment, it should be added. Bet365, one of the biggest sportsbooks worldwide, has the Chiefs as the favorite at +300; lower even than the DK has the Bills; whilst making the Bills slightly more attractive at +375.

Ultimately, in the offseason we can play underdogs and favorites – but in the regular and post season, everything will eventually be decided.