The Chicago Bears are 1-1 going into their Week 3 matchup with the 0-2 Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. It is a desperate time for the Colts, who entered the season with playoff expectations and will be fighting tooth and nail to avoid an 0-3 start. Remember, weird things happen at Lucas Oil Stadium. Don't be surprised if there are some flukey moments in this game.
The Colts have an electric dual-threat athlete at quarterback in Anthony Richardson. While his passing consistency is questionable, his playmaking ability is indisputable. Beyond the QB, the Colts boast a powerful offensive line and one of the best pure runners in the league in Jonathan Taylor. While the defense is not full of star players, the Colts have a deep pass-rush rotation that can get after the passer. Roster aside, these three concepts will be paramount to the Bears' ability to come away victorious on Sunday.
3. Pound the Rock
Through two games, the Bears rank 29th in rush yards per attempt, 29th in stuffed run percentage, 25th in RYOE per attempt, and 22nd in rush success rate. Meanwhile, they have run outside the tackles at the 6th highest rate in the league, and inside the tackles at the 28th highest rate. So they have avoided running inside, where they have three blockers who have made their name in the league as run blockers.
The Colts defense ranks 28th in rush yards per attempt, 22nd in stuffed run percentage, 22nd in RYOE per attempt, and 14th in rush success rate. They have allowed 15 run plays to go for 10+ yards through the first two games. Last week, the Packers ran for 261 yards at a clip of 4.9 YPC against the Colts despite starting backup QB Malik Willis. This defense allows explosive runs at a high rate. Additionally, the Colts will be without Pro Bowl defensive tackle DeForest Buckner on Sunday.
I want to see the Bears attack the inside run lanes aggressively. If they are successful, that will open up downfield play action shots in the pass game. Not to mention, the best medicine for an ailing offensive line is a heavy dosage of downhill run concepts. Let the big boys get their swagger back with some physicality.
2. Make Anthony Richardson Play QB
Since graduating high school, Anthony Richardson has dropped back a total of 614 times (455 of which happened at the college level). For reference, Caleb Williams dropped back 568 times in just his 2022 season at USC. All of that to say, Richardson is a very inexperienced quarterback. If you can force him to play from the pocket, you have a good chance to force him into mistakes.
Therein lies the issue, though. Forcing him to play from the pocket. This is a player who has the speed of a wide receiver, the mass of an EDGE rusher, and a rocket arm that was blessed by the gods. He is difficult to contain and becomes even more difficult to focus on if you can't slow down the Colts' powerful rushing offense.
The Bears will need to play sound run defense and maintain their run gaps against a good Colts offensive line. If they contain the run game without overcommitting, then Richardson will need to win playing Quarterback. The defensive line needs to be aware of their contain responsibilities, though. Richardson is far more dangerous when he breaks the pocket than when playing dropback football.
Taking out play-action and screen dropbacks, Richardson has completed 11 of 31 pass attempts (35%) for 170 yards (5.5 YPA), 1 touchdown, and 3 interceptions through the first two games. If the Bears limit the ground attack and force him to win from the pocket, I like their chances.
1. Fix the Fundamentals
This starts with the offensive line. There is no excuse for the OL to be as bad as they have been through the first two weeks. Whether it is who is calling protections, scheme, playcalling, playbook retention, lack of practice time, whatever. There are less talented offensive lines executing much better than the Bears have so far. The current level of OL execution is just not sustainable for anyone.
Football is about finding answers and creating attainable solutions for the talent in place. I haven't seen many solutions yet, but there ARE solutions out there. The Bears need to figure out who they want to be on offense, get to the basics of that, and build from there. The scheme feels like it tried to skip step 1 and go straight to step 2 or 3. Cut it back to step one, perfect that, and build the scheme out from there. I thoroughly believe that simplifying the scheme and focusing on the basics will improve the blocking and the offense as a whole.
Key Players to Watch
- Khalil Herbert: Call it a gut feeling, but the Bears need to get some rhythm in the ground game, and Herbert is the biggest between-the-tackles threat on the team. He might not boast the power of Roschon Johnson, but his home run ability can change games. I expect to see him get a larger workload after being worked into more passing downs in week two.
- DJ Moore: After looking frustrated on Sunday Night Football, I would expect the Bears to get their WR1 involved early and often this week. He is the most dangerous weapon on the Bears offense and he needs to get more quality opportunities. Look for him to make plays against a vulnerable Colts secondary.
- Tremaine Edmunds: Edmunds has never been the most instinctive player in run fits. If I am the Colts, I am trying to target him in the run game this week. I see the Colts attacking Edmunds's run gap in hopes that they can get him flowing downhill more aggressively, opening up the middle of the field for intermediate play-action opportunities. He is also your best bet to spy Richardson if the Bears elect to go that route.
