Over the last 14 years, the New York Jets have only had one winning season. According to the latest analytics, that won’t be changing anytime soon.
ESPN’s Seth Walder unveiled the 2025 version of the Football Power Index (FPI) on Wednesday, May 28. This FPI includes ESPN’s “football ratings and projection model.”
Walder projects that the Jets have the fourth-best odds (10%) in the NFL of landing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL draft. The only teams that are higher are the Cleveland Browns (13%), New York Giants (12%), and the Tennessee Titans (11%). The Jets also have the fourth-best odds of landing a top-five pick (40%).
Since the turn of the century, the Jets have had 13 top-10 picks.
An Embarrassing Jets Drought Is Likely to Extend in 2025, per Analytics
The green and white haven’t won a division crown since 2002. Walder’s analytics revealed that “Buffalo is the only AFC East team with a positive FPI rating and would be considered more than a four-point favorite over each of the other three on a neutral field. And the Bills have a 65% chance to win their division — the highest of any team in the NFL by a hefty margin.”
That isn’t strictly an analytically driven message either.
Judy Battista of the NFL Media Group said the Bills were the “least vulnerable” division winner heading into the 2025 season. In other words, they were the least likely of any division winner not to repeat in 2026.
“The FPI might be overrating the Bills or underrating someone else, or one of the other teams could luck into the division title despite not being as good as Buffalo overall,” Walder explained. “But that variance will always be there. In the meantime, the Bills are again in as good a position as it gets to win their division.”
It All Comes Down to QB Play for the Jets
This may be oversimplifying it, but the Jets’ success is directly tied to their quarterback play in 2025.
If Justin Fields is good, the Jets will have a chance to make some noise this season. If he is mediocre, the Jets will be in no man’s land, not good enough to make the playoffs but not bad enough to have a top pick. However, if Fields is just terrible, the team will be back in the quarterback market in 2026.
ESPN NFL analyst Louis Riddick said on “Get Up” on Wednesday, May 28, that it isn’t ridiculous to think Fields could have a career season in 2025.
“So could Justin Fields have a career year, which would primarily be comprised of 20+ touchdown passes, 3,000+ passing yards, 800+ rushing yards? I absolutely could see that happening,” Riddick said.
.@LRiddickESPN told @Espngreeny that it’s not ridiculous to think Justin Fields could have a career year on the #Jets in 2025:
‘So could Justin Fields have a career year which would primarily be comprised of 20+ touchdown passes, 3K+ passing yards, 800+ rushing yards? I… pic.twitter.com/GWArc9FMjU
— Paul Andrew Esden Jr (@BoyGreen25) May 28, 2025
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If Fields accomplished those feats, that would be the most rushing yards a Jets quarterback has ever had in a single season. Al Dorow had 453 rushing yards for the New York Titans in 1960. In the modern era, Geno Smith had 366 rushing yards during his rookie season in 2013.
