Week 17's Sunday Night Football matchup between the Atlanta Falcons and Washington Commanders has become a crucial game in the NFC playoff picture. So much so that the NFL flexed that game to Sunday night. The Falcons (8-7) have clawed their way back into first place in the NFC South, while the Commanders (10-5) remain in the hunt to take the NFC East crown in the season's final weeks.
This Falcons team has undergone a significant transformation in the last week. Veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins, who signed a massive deal this offseason, has been relegated to the bench. Taking the reins is rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr., the No. 8 overall pick in this year’s draft.
Penix had a strong debut, albeit against the struggling New York Giants. Now, the stakes are much higher as he prepares to face a formidable Commanders team led by fellow rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.
With so much on the line, neither team is likely to back down. For the Falcons, a win would not only solidify their place atop the division but also officially eliminate the Buccaneers from contention. With that, let’s dive into our Falcons bold predictions against the Commanders on Sunday Night Football in Week 17.
Michael Penix Jr. throws at least one touchdown pass
Falcons fans were optimistic that their new starting quarterback, this year’s No. 8 overall draft pick, would find the end zone through the air in his debut last week against the New York Giants. That didn’t happen, though he came close on several occasions.
Michael Penix Jr. finished 18-for-27 with 202 yards and one interception, though the pick was more a result of tight end Kyle Pitts failing to secure the ball than Penix's decision-making. In Week 17, under the bright lights of Sunday Night Football and against a much tougher opponent in the Washington Commanders, Penix is poised to throw his first career touchdown pass.
Falcons defense allows Jayden Daniels to throw for three touchdowns
Penix’s counterpart, rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, could be in for a big game against the Falcons’ defense. Atlanta ranks 20th in passing defense, allowing 223.4 yards per game, and is tied for the second-most passing touchdowns surrendered this season with 28.
The Falcons have a recent history of making opposing rookie quarterbacks look like superstars (remember Will Levis in his first start last season for the Titans). Over their last two games, Atlanta has allowed just two passing touchdowns, though those outings came against teams relying on third-string quarterbacks. Prior to that, they faced Sam Darnold and the Vikings, allowing a season-high five passing touchdowns.
While Daniels might not replicate Darnold’s five-touchdown performance, three touchdowns seem realistic. He’s accomplished that feat twice this season, including in last week’s win over the Philadelphia Eagles, where he threw five.
Falcons continue impressive sack streak, sacking Jayden Daniels at least three times
The Falcons remain one of the worst pass-rushing teams in the league, sitting last with just 26 sacks on the season. However, they've shown significant improvement in this area over the past month.
Through Week 11, Atlanta was averaging a dismal 0.9 sacks per game. Over their last four games, though, they’ve ramped it up to an impressive average of four sacks per game. This surge hasn’t come against weak competition, either—they recorded five sacks against the Los Angeles Chargers and four against the Minnesota Vikings.
The Commanders, meanwhile, rank 13th in the league in sacks allowed, having given up 39 on the season. This presents another opportunity for the Falcons to continue their recent success in getting into the backfield and pressuring the quarterback.
Falcons lose to the Commanders in a close one
The pressure on Michael Penix Jr. in just his second career start cannot be overstated. He’s stepping into a pivotal matchup against one of the more consistent and surprising teams in the league this season. While the Commanders are also rolling with a rookie quarterback in Jayden Daniels, he has far more NFL experience under his belt compared to Penix.
This game could very well come down to red-zone efficiency, an area where the Falcons have struggled all season. Atlanta ranks near the bottom of the league, sitting at 28th in red-zone touchdown efficiency, converting just 48.8% of their trips into six points, per Team Rankings. Too often, the Falcons have been forced to settle for field goals or not score at all in critical situations.
Equally concerning is the Falcons' red-zone defense, which ranks 23rd in the NFL, allowing opponents to score touchdowns on 62.2% of their trips. Meanwhile, the Commanders excel in this area, ranking seventh and scoring touchdowns 61.2% of the time when they get inside the 20.
While some of these struggles were with Kirk Cousins under center, this remains a tall task for a rookie quarterback like Penix. In the end, the Falcons fall just short in a close one, delaying their NFC South hopes to the final week of the season to see if they can secure the division title over the Buccaneers.
