The Denver Broncos really need to come away from the 2025 NFL draft with an impact player at one of the skill positions. The Broncos have found their franchise quarterback in Bo Nix, and now they need to pair him with a young playmaking wide receiver, tight end, and/or running back.
If Denver can find one now, the near future looks bright. The problem is the draft is often a roll of the dice.
Many potential stars turn out to be busts, so how can the Broncos hedge their bets in this upcoming draft? By using analytics.
The Data
Just like rolling the dice, draft success can be enhanced by understanding and exploiting probabilities. I've analyzed the last 14 years of the draft and identified the probabilities of the Broncos selecting an impact player, a primary starter, and a miss by round and position.
An impact player is any player who has earned at least one first-team All-Pro award or was selected to multiple Pro Bowls. A primary starter is a player who has been the starter for at least 50% of their time in the NFL. A miss is a bust.
Round 1, Pick 20
The Broncos have the 20th pick in the first round and finding an impact player at that spot is no guarantee. The probability of selecting an impact player at any position from pick No. 16 to No. 20 is 0.29.
That's about one in every three players drafted in that window. Landing a primary starter comes with a higher probability at 0.53, but the Broncos need to come away with an impact player in Round 1, so I will focus on those probabilities.
By Position
Running Back
Breaking it down further, I was able to identify what position is more likely to become an impact player at the spot the Broncos are selecting. Based on the past 14 drafts, there hasn't been a running back selected from picks 11 to 20 who became an impact player. However, from picks 21 to 32, the probability of selecting an impact running back is 0.33.
Wide Receiver
The wide receiver position fared a little better because impact players have actually been selected from picks 11-32. The probability of landing an impact player at the position is 0.13 from picks 11 through 20. From 21 to 32, the probability is 0.21.
Tight End
When it comes to tight end, there hasn't been an impact player selected from 11-32 over the past 14 drafts.
Day 2
Based purely on the first-round data, the probability metrics indicate that taking a wide receiver with the Broncos’ first selection gives the team a better chance of getting that impact playmaker. However, before deciding on taking a wide receiver on Day 1, Rounds 2 and 3 must be part of the picture. There's a chance that one of these positions has a more favorable probability on Day 2 of the draft.
Where the Broncos are picking in Round 2, the probability of finding an impact player at any position is not great at 0.07, and Round 3 is slightly lower at 0.05. However, the probability of selecting an impact wide receiver at Denver's spot in Round 2 is the same as picks 11 through 20 in Round 1 (0.13).
That probability is higher than both running back and tight end, though. Round 3 is where the strategy coalesces.
Tight end has the highest third-round probability out of the three positions at 0.12, and that probability is nearly the highest of any spot in Rounds 1 through 3 for that position. This means the Broncos are more likely to draft an impact player at tight end in Round 3 than at No. 20 overall or in the back half of Round 2.
Bottom Line
By looking at all three rounds and using probabilities, prioritizing the positions in order is obvious. Assuming the players the Broncos covet are available when they make their selection, they'd be wise to utilize the following strategy to maximize their chances of finding at least one impact player at the skill positions.
Denver should select a running back at No. 20, a wide receiver in Round 2, and a tight end in Round 3. Following this model would maximize the Broncos' probability of landing that impact player for Nix.
