So you’re telling me there’s a 10.4% chance.
Alabama football has the fourth-best odds to win a national championship in 2025, according to ESPN’s fresh 2025 College Football Power Index ratings released Tuesday. The rating system gives the Crimson Tide a 10.4% chance to win it, ranked behind only Texas (22.2%), Georgia (17.5%) and Ohio State (11.6%).
FPI, as defined by ESPN, is “a predictive rating system that estimates each FBS team’s strength (in points per game relative to the national average) on offense, defense and special teams, making adjustments for starters lost, recruiting talent and other personnel changes.”
Although 10.4% might not seem big, no other team in college football clears 7.6%; That’s Penn State, which has the next-best odds behind Alabama to win it. After that, Oregon sits at 4.8%.
The Crimson Tide’s chances of making the College Football Playoff are much greater. Alabama has a 66.2% chance of reaching the CFP. That’s also fourth-best behind Texas (83.9%), Georgia (78.6%) and Ohio State (70.6%).
Alabama’s in-state rival Auburn has a 21.8% chance of making the playoff with a 1.1% chance of winning a national championship.
