The 2023-24 season of the Miami Heat presents a complex narrative. It showcases both moments of success and disappointment compared to previous seasons. Rather than instilling unwavering hope or stealing it away, this season raises more questions than it provides answers.
Injuries and absences play a significant role in explaining the team's performance. Miami had to rely on a record-breaking 35 different starting lineups. They struggled to maintain a consistent five-man group on the court, with only two lineups surpassing 100 minutes together, compared to five lineups achieving that milestone in the previous season.
Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro's availability was limited, as they combined to play only 102 out of 164 games. Additionally, the trade that brought Kyle Lowry to the team resulted in Terry Rozier joining another team due to injuries, first to his knee and then to his neck. Furthermore, Butler's absence during the playoffs due to a knee injury sustained in the play-in tournament game against the Philadelphia 76ers further hindered the team's chances. Miami struggles to achieve success when they're without their key players and cohesive rotations on the court.
On the contrary, the true potential of this team remained a mystery, as we never had the chance to witness their best lineups in action. While we could look back at the remarkable run from the previous season as a reference point, it was not a direct comparison. Herro, Butler, and Bam Adebayo only shared the court for 499 minutes, resulting in a Net Rating of +3.2. Additionally, they played just 118 minutes with Rozier, producing a Net Rating of +1.0. Unfortunately, these minutes were sporadic due to injuries, hindering their ability to build chemistry and cohesion.
Despite the lack of opportunities to showcase their full potential, the team also failed to deliver dominant performances, evident by their minimal number of 20-point victories compared to other playoff teams. While the confidence in their abilities stemmed from past successes, struggles in late-game situations raised doubts even among the most optimistic fans.
Ultimately, the outcome is what truly matters. With 46 wins, Miami secured the No. 8 seed for the second consecutive year. The regular season ended with eight teams advancing to the second round of the NBA playoffs, leaving Miami behind. However, they were just a few wins away from a higher seed, highlighting the fine margins in the NBA.
Each memorable or forgettable season plays a crucial role in shaping the team's future, serving as a valuable learning experience for what lies ahead. Here are some mistakes the Miami Heat organization cannot repeat next season if they aspire to make a comeback.
1. Sticking with Herro as a starter for too long
The Heat had high expectations this season, with many predicting Herro to shine as an All-Star caliber player. In certain aspects, Herro's season mirrored that of Miami's. He faced availability issues and struggled when limited rotation options were presented against specific opponents. Nevertheless, he remained true to his core identity as a player.
Miami's bench presence has the potential to be a driving key element. We are all aware of the widely accepted belief that roster depth can greatly contribute to a team's success. For many teams, the sixth man and the bench players play a crucial role in winning playoff games.
One of the major storylines for the team during the offseason was Herro's new role. The talented shooting guard finally received his promotion to the starting lineup. However, Tyler's role as a starter seemed to have caused some issues, particularly on the defensive end. Herro lacks speed and is easily outmaneuvered by opponents in the paint. While the team's performance issues cannot be solely blamed on him, if Herro were to return as the leader of the second unit, the Heat could regain their threat status.
Miami was one of the top teams in the Eastern Conference, and their success was largely attributed to their strong defense. Additionally, the distribution of roles within the team helped them effectively handle their opponents. Herro's role as the primary scorer off the bench provided a consistent offensive threat for the team.
Opposing teams struggled to defend against Herro, as some lacked the necessary personnel to stop him. Under head coach Spoelstra's guidance, Tyler was given the freedom to score at will, allowing him to showcase his scoring abilities.
Currently, the team is facing a lack of reliable scoring options from the bench. Herro has the potential to be a consistent scorer for the Heat's second unit rather than a starter. Miami is focusing on getting more possessions for Herro and Adebayo as they develop into their key players. Adebayo's impact, particularly on the defensive end, is undeniable. Herro thrives on offense when he has the ball in his hands.
The Heat are not the only team facing the challenge of managing possessions, but the teams that find a solution are the ones that ultimately succeed at the highest level. The issue lies not in the number of shots Herro takes, but rather in how long he holds onto the ball. In comparison to Duncan Robinson's special ability to release the ball quickly, Herro tends to hold onto the ball for too long.
Miami's notion that "defense wins championships" fails to capture the full picture, as a strong offense is equally vital for success in the playoffs. Despite having above-average 3-point shooting, the offense hindered the team's progress and ranked in the lower half of the league for the third time in five years. However, there were individual bright spots within the team. Herro had a strong start to the season and Butler remained a crucial mismatch seeker.
The trio of Butler, Duncan Robinson, and Adebayo has proven to be a more effective combination for Miami's offense compared to Butler, Herro, and Adebayo over the past four seasons from 2020-2024. In the 2023-24 season, Butler, Robinson, and Adebayo displayed a superior ORTG of 119.5 (+3.2), while Butler, Herro, and Adebayo had an ORTG of 115.5 (-0.8). These statistics highlight Robinson's compatibility in the starting lineup and the need for increased playtime alongside Butler and Adebayo in the upcoming season. Robinson's evolution into a more versatile player has significantly benefited the team offensively. Despite Herro's impact, his effectiveness is contingent on his health and the team's rotation.
Miami's offensive struggles can be attributed to the inconsistent pairing of players and suboptimal player usage. The team's lackluster performance, particularly in 3-point shooting, underscores the need for a more cohesive offensive strategy.
The issues faced by the team this season may extend beyond individual player performance. While some players met expectations, others fell short, indicating underlying team dynamics that require attention in the offseason.
Herro, the 2021 Sixth Man of the Year, has predominantly started in regular-season games since receiving the award. Although his offensive production dipped slightly when coming off the bench, his overall performance, both offensively and defensively, improved in this role.
Herro's outstanding shooting skills have been instrumental in elevating the Heat's offensive production to unprecedented levels. Unfortunately, his 40 missed games hurt the team's ability to escape the play-in tournament.
“He’s been fragile a little bit,” Riley said bluntly.
Having a fully healthy Herro back will be a massive upgrade if he isn't traded this offseason, but he may be best if he returns to a sixth man role.
2. Lack of team availability
Despite initial concerns, many fans remained hopeful for a strong playoff performance led by "Playoff Jimmy" and a repeat of last year's surprising success as underdogs. However, these hopes were ultimately dashed.
The Heat faced significant challenges this season, ranking fifth in the league for the most missed games due to injuries at 250, according to Spotrac's injury tracker. This issue has resulted in a lack of consistency and uncertainty in the team's rotation as they head toward the playoffs. Miami established a new franchise record with Spoelstra utilizing 35 different starting lineups throughout the season.
During the regular season, no Heat lineup accumulated over 200 minutes on the court together. In contrast, the Celtics, who recently eliminated the Heat in the first round of the playoffs, had two lineups that surpassed 300 minutes of playing time together.
Furthermore, the Heat's prominent trio consisting of Adebayo, Butler, and Herro only appeared in 27 games together this regular season, resulting in a 14-13 record. Unfortunately, this trio did not have the opportunity to play any playoff games together this year, as Butler was sidelined for the entire first-round series against the Celtics due to a sprained MCL in his right knee.
In his annual season-ending news conference, Riley addressed the media about the importance of change. However, Riley's focus was not on the potential alterations to the team's roster following their early exit from the playoffs this season. Instead, it was mostly about player availability. Riley made it clear he won't accept the same outcome next year.
“Those things you’re doing to try to win, if they aren’t working, must change,” Riley said. "That’s a deep dive for us this summer into player availability. So we have to change some things."
The Heat's roster presents a significant challenge. While Butler is a standout player renowned for his clutch playoff performances, his age, and declining durability have become worrisome as he enters his 15th season at the age of 35 next year. His average number of games played per season in Miami fell below 60, and his minutes per game decreased.
Herro and Caleb Martin, who were available, failed to deliver standout performances except for a remarkable Game 2 effort. The absence of Robinson and Jaime Jaquez Jr. due to additional injuries further hindered the Heat's chances of making a deep playoff run this season.
Point guard Terry Rozier, who joined the team in a trade in January, had been playing the best basketball of his career heading into the postseason before being diagnosed with neck spasms on April 7. Despite initially being considered day-to-day, he ended up missing the entire postseason. Josh Richardson was just starting to find his form when he had to undergo shoulder surgery, ruling him out for the rest of the year.
Sharpshooter and "Most Improved Player" candidate, Duncan Robinson, also was playing some of the best basketball of his career and has transformed into a versatile player this season. Robinson suffered a back injury late in the season, which affected his performance compared to his standout performance in Game 7 against the Celtics last season. To add to the team's woes, Jaime Jaquez Jr., who showed promise in his rookie year playoffs, missed Game 5 against the Celtics due to a hip injury.
This team had a season filled with setbacks. Injuries sidelining key players resulted in significant missed games that impacted the Heat's performance. Riley was right to focus on them.
3. Not enough Jimmy Butler
Miami has faced consistent issues in the regular season, primarily due to a lack of star power. The team has missed out on trading for All-Stars such as Damian Lillard, Kevin Durant, Donovan Mitchell, and Bradley Beal in recent seasons. The current roster lacks the firepower needed to compete with top teams, especially when players like Jimmy Butler are limited or sidelined due to injuries.
The team desperately needs someone reliable, durable, and versatile. Butler, at 34, isn't capable of leading the Heat's offense during the regular season. Herro, though promising, is clearly not a no. 1 scoring option on a contending team and neither is Adebayo despite his improvements on that end.
Spoelstra had taken the initiative to spread the wealth of the offense across Butler, Adebayo, and Herro. The usage rates of Herro, Adebayo, and Butler on the court over the past three seasons (beginning in 2022) are as follows:
Herro: 23.7% → 23.7% → 27.1%
Adebayo: 21.9% → 22.9% → 25.6%
Butler: 28.2% → 23.6% → 20.8%
The absence of Butler on the court has a noticeable impact on the team's offense as it forces Adebayo and Herro to play bigger roles that they are qualified for. The team's offensive rating with Adebyao and Herro on the court was 105.4, highlighting the fact that both Herro and Adebayo do not possess the same offensive capabilities as a healthy and engaged Butler.
It is undeniable that the offense is experiencing a decline as a result. There is simply no other justification for it. A decrease in Butler's involvement will continue to lead to a decline in the offense, a recurring problem that has persisted year after year. The team has consistently depended too heavily on Butler each season, and now they are facing the consequences as he is unable to single-handedly carry them through these challenging periods.
It’s evident now more than ever that the Heat should not leave the offseason without acquiring a new star player.
4. Blown fourth quarter leads
In 2022-23, the Heat outscored their opponents by 4.8 points per 100 possessions in the fourth quarter. That flipped in 2023-24, when the Heat ranked second to last in the NBA in fourth-quarter net rating, being outscored by an average of 7 points per 100 possessions in the final period.
Consequently, the Heat were 15-24 in games where they were outscored in the final quarter, some of those losses coming against lottery-bound teams.
Miami struggled against teams with a top-five winning record, finishing with a 17-24 in those matchups. They were unable to secure a win against the Celtics, Nuggets, Timberwolves, and Thunder, and only managed to win one game out of three against the Bucks.
However, what sets the Heat apart is their ability to dominate against weaker opponents. They showcased their strength by achieving an impressive 22-9 record this season against teams with a losing record. This highlights their capability to take care of business against inferior teams. But, the challenge for the Heat this season has been competing against tougher opponents.
Truth is, if the Heat can’t find a way to win against more of the best teams, then they have no chance of winning the franchise's fourth championship.
