The Miami Heat will run it back with much of the same core, but it wasn’t long ago that it looked like they were nearly forced into a major shakeup.
Zoom back to May. Heat president Pat Riley used his annual end-of-season media session to publicly challenge Jimmy Butler. For his part, Butler’s camp made it clear through media leaks that he sought a maximum contract extension from the Heat or any other team.
That never happened. The only landing spot with maximum cap space was the Philadelphia 76ers, and they used it to sign Paul George. Butler decided it best to kick contract talks to next summer and play out this season in what amounts to a contract year. If he comes back in “killer mode,” Butler will position himself for one last big contract for his career.
But what if the alternative happened? What if Butler held out for a long-term contract extension and the Heat were forced to pivot?
What would a torn-down and rebuilt Heat team have looked like?
It depends on where they would have traded Butler, but it doesn’t stop there.
Scenario 1: Butler is traded to Philadelphia
In this hypothetical universe, let's assume George re-signed with the Clippers, leaving the 76ers with max cap space to use on a star player.
According to the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Sixers were prepared to offer Butler a maximum contract extension in a sign-and-trade. Philadelphia had the space to absorb Butler’s contract without sending other contracts back to Miami.
Such a deal would have given Miami a fair amount of cap space and ducked the luxury tax altogether. It would have unlocked the non-taxpayer mid-level exception and allowed them to take more salary back in separate trades.
Re-signing their own free agents like Caleb Martin would have been easier. Naji Marshall, Derrick Jones Jr. and De’Anthony Melton signed for close to the MLE. Perhaps the Heat could have been involved with them. Other free agents like DeMar DeRozan, Klay Thompson and Jonas Valanciunas switched teams via sign-and-trade, which the Heat could have executed with that much space below the tax.
More likely than not, the Heat would have gotten draft capital back from Philadelphia, including the 16th pick in June’s draft. The 76ers used that pick on Jared McCain. McCain was on Miami’s board, so let’s assume he would have been the Heat’s second pick after taking Kel’el Ware at 15.
The Heat could have shopped the new draft capital and other players to land a star to replace Butler, but that became less of an option when Donovan Mitchell re-signed with Cleveland. No other stars became available.
It’s unlikely the Heat would have tied up future cap space in an aging vet like DeRozan. Rather, they would have maintained financial flexibility for next season.
So the Heat’s roster would have looked something like:
PG: Terry Rozier / Jared McCain
SG: Tyler Herro / Duncan Robinson / Josh Richardson
SF: Jaime Jaquez Jr. / Haywood Highsmith / Pelle Larsson
PF: Nikola Jovic / Kevin Love
C: Bam Adebayo / Kel’el Ware
That would leave three open roster spots. Maybe the Heat don’t sign Alec Burks or Thomas Bryant. Maybe they do. They’d still have the three two-way spots currently occupied by Dru Smith, Keshad Johnson and Josh Christopher.
Scenario 2: Butler is traded to the Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets were reportedly interested in making a major move that could have pushed them into the playoff mix next season, but that never materialized.
The only addition Houston made was acquiring AJ Griffin in a deal with the Atlanta Hawks. The rest of their offseason was highlighted by shorting the Phoenix Suns.
Rockets coach Ime Udoka and owner Tilman Fertitta have an appetite to make the playoffs now. Butler would have helped them do that. Would they have made a play for Butler?
It’s unclear, but the Rockets look like a team ripe to make a blockbuster deal at some point soon. They have oodles of valuable draft picks and many (maybe too many?) interesting young players.
Houston would have been the best trade partner to propel Miami’s rebuild. A deal centered around Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Steven Adams and the No. 3 pick in June’s draft would have been a solid starting point.
That would have given the Heat the following 10 players: Green, Rozier, Herro, Richardson, Brooks, Robinson, Jaquez, Jovic, Adams and Adebayo. Twelve if they re-signed Love and Highsmith. If they used the third and 15th picks on Reed Sheppard and Ware and their second-round pick on Pelle Larsson, that brings the roster to 15.
That roster doesn’t make much sense – it’s heavy on smallish guards and short on forwards and big men. The Heat might have been motivated to trade Rozier, Herro or Robinson and rebalance the depth chart. That much is difficult to project.
But this Butler trade would have given the Heat six players under 27 to build around: Green, Sheppard, Herro, Jaquez, Jovic and Adebayo.
Scenario 3: The Warriors get desperate
The Warriors tried and failed to land Lauri Markkanen this summer, but the front office is clearly motivated to improve the team and maximize Steph Curry’s championship window.
Butler is an ideal theoretical co-star. His two-way ability and bruising style of play the yin to Curry’s yang.
According to The Athletic, Golden State’s final offer for Markkanen centered around guard Moses Moody, multiple first-round picks, pick swaps and second-rounders. The Warriors were unwilling to include Brandin Podziemski or Jonathan Kuminga, according to those reports.
The Warriors would have had to include more salary – likely Andrew Wiggins and Kevon Looney – to facilitate the deal. Perhaps they could have swapped Chris Paul’s expiring contract for Wiggins if the deal had been done early enough in the offseason before Paul was waived and signed with the San Antonio Spurs.
That’s a pretty lame offer for Butler. The Heat would have likely wanted a blue-chip pick or young player back. Adding Kuminga to the mix is interesting but might not get it over the hump. The Warriors also didn’t have their own pick in this summer’s draft.
The value in this trade would have been in shorting the Warriors in the future, betting on getting lottery picks from Golden State after Curry, Butler and Draymond Green retire. But the Heat have never taken that approach to team-building before.
