Will Rams become more of a run-oriented team in 2024?

Throughout the Sean McVay era, the Los Angeles Rams head coach has been consistently criticized for some of his situational play-calling. Much of this has to do with a reluctance at times to run the ball. There were cases of this last year, notably against the Baltimore Ravens when the Rams ran the ball nine straight times to start the game only to pass three consecutive times before settling for a field goal. In the playoff game against the Detroit Lions, the Rams had three red zone run plays in three trips.

Watching in real time, it can get frustrating. However, at the same time, McVay hasn’t necessarily been a pass-happy play-caller. The negative examples here have somewhat clouded the overall picture. Looking at the end of season data, he has never had an offense with a top-10 pass-rate.

Last season, the Rams threw the ball just 58 percent of the time which was actually in the bottom-10 of the NFL at 25th. Contrarily, McVay’s 41 percent run rate ranked eighth. McVay actually ran the ball more than what was expected of him as well. The Rams had a pass rate over expected of -2.1 percent. That ranked 20th. This didn’t change much in the red zone as the Rams had a -5.7 percent pass rate over expected inside the 20 which came in 18th.

 Ben Baldwin | rbsdm

This isn’t to say that some of the criticisms aren’t warranted. However, it’s also not right to say that the Rams have been an offense that’s primarily focused around passing the ball or to pain McVay as a ‘pass-happy’ play-caller based on the numbers. Situationally of course, things can differ or a sequence in one game can alter the overall image. That was the case in games against the Ravens and Lions mentioned above. Overall speaking, McVay tends to be right in line with the league average.

There are of course extreme examples. In 2021, the Rams had a pass-rate over expected of 2.6 percent which ranked sixth in the NFL. That was the highest of the McVay era and much of that had to do with the emergence of Matthew Stafford in the offense combined with no run game to speak of. For comparison, a team like the Kansas City Chiefs has consistently been at the top of the league in pass rate and pass rate over expected.

 Robby | nfeloapp

Again, under McVay, the Rams have typically had a run-oriented offense. When he took over in 2017, McVay’s offense was built around the wide-zone and play-action off of that. Last year, the offense was built around the gap-scheme run game and marrying the run and pass together.

McVay tends to get compared to another offensive mad scientist in Mike Martz. But the two are very different. Martz was stuck in his offense and was going to run his offense his way. McVay has shown the ability to alter his offense when necessary and given his Shanahan background, build everything around the run game. Even when the Rams are losing, they are a team that runs the ball. According to Sharp Analytics, the Rams had the fourth-most run plays when losing in the second half of games last season.

With the emergence of Kyren Williams last season and the implementation of the gap scheme run game, McVay got back to his roots a little bit more. After ranking 18th and 20th in run-rate in 2021 and 2022, McVay was back closer to a 40 percent run-rate last season. Given the personnel changes this offseason, it seems as if McVay is going to continue to embrace the gap-scheme run game. The Rams signed Jonah Jackson to help bulk up the offensive line and are moving Steve Avila to center. They also re-signed Kevin Dotson who was the top-rated guard in gap-scheme runs in 2023. The Rams also brought in tight end Colby Parkinson and drafted running back Blake Corum.

For all intents and purposes, it seems as if the Rams will continue to build on the identity that they created a season ago. Will that lead to more running? Again, they ranked 25th in pass-rate last season. How much lower do they need to go? It seems unlikely that Williams and Corum will split 30 carries a game consistently.

A balanced offense is typically a good offense, but a team in today’s passing league is never going to be completely 50-50. The most run-heavy offenses in the NFL still pass the ball 55 percent of the time. The 2022 Atlanta Falcons who threw the ball only 48 percent of the time were an anomaly. They are one of just three teams to run more than throw with the other two being the Lamar Jackson led Baltimore Ravens.

Looking at last year, the Rams with Matthew Stafford had the same pass rate as the Tennessee Titans with Ryan Tannehill and Will Levis and the Cleveland Browns with DeShaun Watson and Joe Flacco. When Stafford is the quarterback, an offense should typically be throwing more often than teams who have to try and protect the player under center.

Of course, the Rams shouldn’t abandon the run by any means with Stafford, but when you have that arm talent in the tool box, it’s sometimes best to show it off. However, it also makes sense to protect him from a health standpoint to help elongate his career. I’ve noted before how the Rams current team build is somewhat similar to the Saints’ approach in the later year of Drew Brees.

It’s worth noting that the Saints were a 64 percent passing team in 2016 which was also Brees’ final season with more than 35 touchdowns. In 2020 there was nearly a 10-point difference with the Saints passing just 55 percent of the time with a pass-rate over expected of -3.8 percent.

The Rams ranked 12th in the NFL last season with 471 rushing attempts, but that still made up 41 percent of their total plays. In the McVay era, the lowest pass rate was 56 percent and that was in his first year with essentially a rookie in Jared Goff. With a veteran like Stafford, it seems unlikely that the Rams would get to that point. At the end of the day, depending on game script, the Rams will very likely end up in the 58-61 percent pass rate in 2024.

This may not be a case of run-rate as much as it is a situational issue. As mentioned earlier, McVay could certainly get better from a situational standpoint. With as good as McVay is, he isn’t perfect. It’s possible that improves with the hiring of John Streicher from the Tennessee Titans who will serve as the Game Management Coordinator this season.

We’ll see what changes the Rams make on the offensive side of the ball, but with McVay calling the plays, it’s bound to be an exciting experience.