Will Rams and Sean McVay go for it more on fourth down in 2024?

As analytics continue to make their way into the NFL landscape, teams are going for it on fourth-down at a historically high rate. In fact, teams set a record in 2021 with 793 fourth down attempts which was an 18 percent increase from 2020. While that number was down in 2022, it increased again in 2023 with 799 attempts. Despite the kicking mindset changing, the Los Angeles Rams have been one of the worst teams when it comes to making the decision to go for it under Sean McVay.

With offense taking over the league, punting for field position and just taking the points has become less important. There is an element of feel and flow to the game, but for the most part, teams are realizing that touchdowns are king and setting for three points when six points are possible isn’t always the best decision. Just five years ago teams went for it on fourth down 539 times. Again, that was up to almost 800 attempts last season.

It seems odd then that the Rams under McVay have been one of the most reluctant teams to go for it on fourth down. With McVay as the play-caller and players like Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp, there should be a level of confidence that they can make a play in those key situations. However, the Rams lost the 14th most win probability last year by kicking in what were considered ‘go’ situations.

Ben Baldwin

Some of the biggest moments last year for the Rams came because they opted to go for it on fourth downs. In Week 4 against the Indianapolis Colts, McVay opted to go for it while leading 7-0 in the first quarter. On 4th-and-3 from the 32 yard line, the Rams converted and ended up scoring a touchdown. That decision increased the team’s win percentage 0.8 points, but played a key role in getting the win.

Later in the year in Week 16 against the New Orleans Saints in a game with playoff implications, the Rams went for it on 4th-and-goal from the two-yard line. Stafford found Nacua for a touchdown and the Rams gained 3.6 points of win probability. The biggest issue here is the lack of consistency from McVay with the decisions.

 Ben Baldwin

Still, it is something that he seems to be embracing more. While the Rams ranked 30th in win percentage points lost in Weeks 1-9, they ranked 11th after Week 10. That speaks to a significant change in overall mindset.

At the same time, the Rams were also more willing to go for it last year. The Rams went for it on 16.8 percent of their fourth downs in 2023 which was up from 15.8 percent in 2022. While that was down from 2021’s rate of 18.2 percent, it’s still a move in a relative positive direction. It is also worth noting that from a pure attempts standpoint, the Rams’ 21 fourth down attempts in 2023 were the most in the McVay era.

An interesting twist here is that McVay hired a game management coordinator this offseason in John Streicher who comes from the Tennessee Titans. While it’s unclear what Streicher’s exact roles were, he was Mike Vrabel’s righthand man and helped with in-game decisions and overall game management. Vrabel also gave Streicher some head coaching duties in 2021. Said Vrabel of Streicher,

“Stretch [Vrabel’s nickname for Streicher] has been valuable for me and our staff. He advises me on replay, timeouts, the clock. In this case, even when the field-goal team was on the field for us, I thought we should go for the win. The odds of making a 50-yard field goal are probably slightly better than making a fourth-and-two at that point in the game against that defense.”

It will be interesting to see exactly what Streicher’s exact role on game days, but if his role is to advise on those types of fourth-down decisions, it could lead to an overall more analytical approach. While McVay was very similar to Vrabel in how often they went for it on fourth down, the Titans tended to be more successful on those attempts. Last year, the Titans ranked sixth in win percentage lost by kicking in go situations.

With a young defense that grows into an identity, it will be important for the Rams to capitalize on each offensive possession. Part of that is being willing to be aggressive on fourth downs. The addition of a game management coordinator in conjunction with a small shift over the back-half of last year, could lead to McVay opting to go for it more in 2024.