Will Bears QB Caleb Williams become the king of checkdowns in 2025?

Part of this was certainly on Caleb. He had a tendency to hold the ball too long and often extended plays with hopes he could hit a target further downfield.

Refining his internal barometer on when best to extend plays using his special ability versus when checking down is a better choice is a work in progress. We saw some improvement from beginning to end of 2024.

It's also important to point out that while Caleb took the most sacks, he also avoided 50 more sacks and faced 57 unblocked pressures, both highest in the NFL.

There's a reason GM Ryan Poles invested to significantly upgrade the entire Bears' interior offensive line for 2025. When you are having to manipulate the pocket so quickly, the read progression quality dips. Getting to the checkdown option may never happen.

The strong desire to try to execute the original play versus "settle" for a checkdown can also impact the quarterback's thinking. This is especially true of Caleb, who had elite success extending plays for longer completions in college.

Lack of checkdowns is also an indictment on the Bears playbook and quarterback coaching. They should have encouraged it more and provided more quality checkdown options.

Usage of the running back on passing downs was also handicapped, which goes back to pressure and protection. Too often, the running back had to help with pass blocking, either inhibiting him entirely from releasing for a checkdown or doing so too late, where he wasn't a viable option.

Even so, Caleb made some incredible plays under pressure just to complete the checkdown pass.

Checkdown is not a dirty word

Throwing a lot of checkdown passes has long been a dig on NFL quarterbacks. Criticism implies that they are less aggressive, confident, decisive or stat-padders.

Yet checkdowns are not only one of the smartest low-risk plays to avoid sacks, they also are used heavily by the best quarterbacks in recent years to keep the sticks moving. This rise has been in tandem with the surge of two-high safety coverage, used on more than a third of defensive snaps in 2024. Working regularly underneath can generate a steady stream of decent chunk yardage more open for the taking.

Some of the best quarterbacks are also among the most effective in using checkdown passes. Brees, Brady, and Mahomes look like artists at it. Lamar, Allen, and Burrow also use them very effectively.

Encouraging them and building in a variety of different checkdown looks are also a great asset to a young quarterback. Last year, Broncos quarterback Bo Nix and Patriots quarterback Drake Maye threw checkdown passes at the third (11.5%) and eighth highest (9.2%) rate.

This was a big part of Nix's offensive success last season. Helped by checkdowns paired with a much better offensive line, Nix put up a very impressive 13.4% pressure-to-sack ratio. Yes, much was due to Nix's signature quick release time. Yet Sean Payton also knew what he was doing when designing his offense to best set him up for success.

Caleb ranked in Top 10 of checkdown efficiency in 2024

There's an even better reason for Caleb to throw more checkdowns this season.

Per the chart below, Caleb ranked ninth on checkdown efficiency with +0.075 EPA/checkdown pass under 5 air yards in 2024.

Who was first by a wide margin? Lions quarterback Jared Goff, with a +0.28 EPA/play on those passes.

Sure, some of this gap can be explained by Goff's strong performance and experience behind a top offensive line. But a portion is also Ben Johnson's offense and coaching, which Caleb will benefit from this year. Caleb will also be playing behind what PFF recently ranked as the fourth-best offensive line.

Even if Caleb can close half of the 2024 gap between him and Goff on this metric in 2025, that's a difference of +0.10 EPA/pass. That would have ranked him fifth in checkdown efficiency this season.

It's also within the realm of possibility that Caleb could top this list in 2025.

As Ben shared, EPA will be a key metric he tracks this year. It will inform and refine his play design and selection, as well as which and how players are deployed. Knowing this is a strength of Caleb's, he will lean more heavily into it and ensure Caleb has better checkdown options.

For an offense that struggled with momentum and sustaining drives a season ago, ratcheting up checkdowns is low-hanging fruit. In the games where he did it more often, the Bears saw success.

This is not to say that Caleb will shy away from deeper throws in 2025 and become a checkdown merchant. Quite the contrary. Assuming the off-season work and adjustments under Ben's guidance result in improved deeper accuracy, he will still take those shots.

The percentage of deep attempts will likely be adjusted lower, which can also make the deep targets more dangerous as defenses get lulled sitting in the box with a robust short passing game.