Rome Odunze's rookie production often draws fire from the fantasy football sect because he failed to hit 1,000 yards and go over three touchdown passes.
Odunze's second season is greatly anticipated from fantasy owners because of several factors but basically because 54 catches and 734 yards seems low for so athletic of a receiver. He should be a breakout player, with limits.
Sports Illustrated's fantasy expert Michael Fabriano sees the removal of Keenan Allen from the offense as the key factor in lifting Odunze's chances for a big year.
"Odunze showed some flashes of potential last season, scoring 20-plus points in two games despite being third in the wideout pecking order behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen," Fabiano wrote in a pre-training camp assessment.
The conclusion: "With Allen and his 8.1 targets per game average no longer in the mix, Odunze should see his target share rise significantly in Year 2."
Williams being coached better by Ben Johnson, more comfortable against the NFL defenses in Year 2 and a better offensive line are other factors Fabiano cited for expecting Odunze's targets and catches to rise.
All of it seems logical but like with anything, there are limits to a good thing.
It all depends on what the fantasy owner's expectations really are for Odunze because ridiculous numbers are ridiculous no matter the circumstance.
In fact, there are also factors working against Odunze going totally crazy an becoming a fantasy football favorite.
The main one is Colston Loveland, and the other two are Olamide Zaccheaus and Luther Burden III. In fact, Loveland is called by ESPN's Matt Bowen an underrated fantasy football play.
Basically, the Bears are going to be using Loveland in a position that really didn't even exist in last year's offense. They had Gerald Everett, targeted him 13 times and he made only eight catches. It would be very surprising if Loveland failed to post good numbers as a rookie move-tight end because Johnson used that position so well with Sam LaPorta in Detroit.
Burden and Zaccheaus can both be dangerous out of the slot or even if slot out, and they'll also take up some of the targets.
Johnson's creativity and tendency to lean toward balancing out the passing attack also could take away from Odunze's opportunities. Even after Jameson Williams got over all of his injury issues in Detroit, he still didn't get to 100 targets.
They still found 44 targets for Tim Patrick, 83 for LaPorta and 101 combined for both of the top backs.
The same is likely to happen with the Bears, especially with even more potential receiver targets than Johnson had in Detroit.
The fourth wide receiver for the Bears is likely to be a far more dangerous and utilized target than the fourth receiver in Detroit. And Cole Kmet will get his targets, as well. It would seem unlikely a target as dependable as Kmet was last year, with the NFL's highest catch percentage among all tight ends, would be a low-end target the way second tight end Brock Wright was in Detroit. He had only 16 targets last year.
All of the balance and Johnson's desire to run the ball to set up play-action passing is going to detract from a huge climb in opportunities for Odunze. Something close to 1,000 yards and 70 catches might be his limitation.
He'll need to prove he can take advantage of the targets he does get for big plays and in the process fantasy owners might come away a little disappointed with Odunze's totals again.
