The Rams and Matthew Stafford appear to be heading towards a divorce and according Vinny Bonsignore of the Las Vegas Review-Journal, the Rams are expected to seek a first-round pick and more for their star quarterback.
With so many quarterback-needy teams entering the offseason, it makes sense that someone would be willing to part with a premium pick for a quarterback of Stafford’s caliber. He’s definitely worth a first or second round draft pick, even at 37 years of age.
That’s the good news for the Rams.
But the bad news for the Rams is that they aren’t holding the most valuable bargaining chip in the situation.
Stafford doesn’t have a no-trade clause in his contract so, in theory, he would have to go anywhere the Rams decide to trade him. But because of the size of Stafford’s contract, he doesn’t need a no-trade clause because no team is going to give up drafts picks to a acquire a quarterback with a $49+ million cap number that doesn’t want to play for them.
According to OverTheCap, Stafford has two years remaining on the extension he signed with the Rams in 2022. Those two remaining years give Stafford nearly as much leverage in his (potential) next destination as a trade clause would have.
Stafford’s situation in Los Angeles is not the same scenario as what played out between Derek Carr and the Raiders two years ago, but there are more similarities than what it might seem on the surface.
Safe to say, Stafford isn’t going to sit back and wait to see where the Rams want to trade him and he also has no reason to let the Rams drag his (potential) new team into a bidding war.
What that means is the Rams probably aren’t going to get the first round pick they are hoping for in exchange for Stafford.
Teams might be willing to give up a first-round pick for Stafford, but since Stafford is going to have the ability to choose his new team, the Rams won’t have the luxury of getting a premium pick for Stafford if he doesn’t want it to play out that way.
If the Raiders, for example, are the team Stafford decides to play for, they aren’t going have any competition for his services. The Rams can stand firm on their asking price, but the Raiders can simply wait them out.
The Rams can’t sit on a $49.6 million contract and sign Aaron Rodgers or any other quarterback they choose to replace Stafford – and even if they could, how long could they pretend they were going to pay their backup quarterback nearly $50 million?
So while the Rams and NFL media types can speculate about Stafford’s trade value, it probably isn’t going to be relevant in this situation.
If Stafford chooses the Raiders, they aren’t going to have to give up a first-round pick… and don’t be surprised if they don’t have to give up a second-round pick, either.
