Most analysts seem to think that Sam Darnold can't possible replicate what he did last year with the Minnesota Vikings now that he's starting for the Seattle Seahawks. There's definitely a case that Darnold could struggle throwing behind one of the league's worst offensive lines, but the idea that Darnold will turn back into the pumpkin he was early in his career with the Jets is wildly overblown.
One benefit of this misperception about Darnold and what he's capable of is that nobody is expecting him to make a big splash in fantasy football this year. That means owners could be able to scoop him up late in their drafts and get a big return on their investment.
According to one analyst at Rotoballer, that's why he's drafting Darnold whenever possible.
"Last season, Darnold revitalized his career, throwing for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns. Those stats were good enough to land him at QB9 in total points. He topped 20 fantasy points in nine games and showed he can produce in a competent system... Now he's in Seattle, working with Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp (not a shabby duo). Darnold is a late-round QB primed to outperform his draft cost. I'm scooping him up in my superflex leagues whenever I can."
According to FantasyPros, Darnold's current ADP is just 159 overall. He's only on 27% of Yahoo rosters and less than 10% on ESPN.
Looking ahead, Darnold may have a tough time in his first two games as he faces the 49ers and the Steelers, who ranked 12th and 5th in fewest QB fantasy points per game allowed last year. Keep mind the Niners were decimated by injuries last season and they have Robert Saleh back as their defensive coordinator, so they're likely to rebound and rank a lot higher.
After that the road gets easier and Darnold should be able to start producing. Leery fans might be able to wait until Week 3 to pick him up off wavers if their QB situation is as-yet unsettled.
